October 2009 Archived Entries

Oct 26, 2009

SPY Forms Lower Low (Short-Term)

By Arthur Hill

This is just a quick update on the short-term trend for SPY and last week’s MACD signal. On the daily chart, MACD(5,35,5) formed a bearish divergence and moved below its signal line last Wednesday for a bearish signal. MACD remains below its signal line, which means momentum is deteriorating. Put another way, the 5-day EMA is moving lower. 

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Oct 23, 2009

Cracks Starting to Appear

By Arthur Hill

-Bulk of the evidence remains bullish
-Weak upside breadth on Monday and Thursday
-SPY and IWM reverse short-term uptrends
-A MACD(5,35,5) signal for SPY
-SPY remains in Wave 4 target zone
-NYSE AD Volume Line does not confirm
-Nasdaq AD Line fails to exceed September high
-Dollar falls, but short-term rates firm
-Gold consolidates after sharp gains
-Oil remains overbought and ripe for a pullback
-Bonds test key support zone
-Breadth chart page updated (click here)
-Click here for the video page.

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Oct 21, 2009

Intermarket Chart Page Updated

By Arthur Hill

-Stocks and the Dollar remain inversely correlated.
-Short-term interest rates are edging higher and this could lift the Dollar.
-Gold remains at high levels as the breakouts hold.
-Broken resistance turns into support for oil.
-Bonds bounced off a key support zone.
-Click here to view the charts.

Oct 20, 2009

MT Bullish, But ST Overbought

By Arthur Hill

-Bulk of the evidence remains bullish
-IWM leads the pack
-SPY extends short-term uptrend
-Past MACD divergences in SPY
-MACD diverges for QQQQ
-Autozone (AZO) firms at support
-Oracle (ORCL) recovers after sharp decline
-Qualcom (QCOM) bounces after hammer
-Comcast (CMCSA) firms after sharp decline
-Nvdia (NVDA) retraces 50% of prior advance
-Paychex (PAYX) firms at broken resistance
-Vulcan Materials (VMC) bounces on good volume
-Click here for the video page

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Oct 16, 2009

New Highs Affirm Uptrend for Stocks

By Arthur Hill

-Bulk of the evidence remains bullish
-SPY surges to new highs in October
-S&P 500 enters retracement zone on weekly chart
-NYSE AD Line hits new high
-VIX moves to new low
-MACD stays bullish despite divergences
-Russell 2000 and S&P 100 exceed September highs
-Bullish percent indices are all above 50%
-Dollar records yet another new low
-Gold remains bullish, but short-term overbought
-Oil breaks channel resistance
-Bonds test key support zone
-Click here for video page.

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Oct 13, 2009

Semis Lead as SPY Hits Sept Highs

By Arthur Hill

-SPY forms doji near September highs
-Short-term uptrend remains in place for SPY
-Treasury yields surge over the last two days
-Dollar ETF forms doji near September lows
-Homebuilders SPDR bounces off support
-Regional Bank SPDR breaks channel resistance
-Transport iShares hits retracement zone
-REIT iShares edges above channel trendline
-Semis and Intel show leadership with big move
-Cigna (CI) bounces ahead of key vote
-CME Group (CME) forges bullish wedge
-CSX Corp (CSX) shows relative weakness
-Rockwell Automation (ROK) forms small consolidation
-Supervalu (SVU) breaks out on good volume
-Click here for video page.

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Oct 09, 2009

Stocks Stall as Dollar Tests Prior Low

By Arthur Hill

-Medium-term evidence remains bullish for stocks
-SPY turns indecisive after sharp advance
-Using CCI for short-term signals in SPY
-Another bottom picking opp in the Dollar
-Oil advances to channel resistance
-Gold becomes overbought as GLD assets surge
-Bonds feel the heat of rising commodity prices
-Click here for the video page.

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Oct 06, 2009

Setting Up for a Short-term Low

By Arthur Hill

-Attempting a short-term low
-Setting short-term support for SPY
-Low Volume the last two Mondays
-Finance Sector Leads
-Regional Banks Lag
-Gold Miners ETF bounces off support
-AMAT forms hammer at support
-BG firms near key retracement
-CPWR forms bullish engulfing at support
-INTU maintains bullish bias
-NEM forms falling wedge
-PPDI pulls back to broken resistance
-Click here for video page

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Oct 02, 2009

Make-or-Break Time for Key Indicators

By Arthur Hill

-Medium-term evidence remains bullish
-Wave 4 Hits the 50% Retracement
-Key Supports for SPY, QQQQ and IWM
-SPY is Already Short-term Oversold
-Volatility Indices Surge to Resistance
-Momentum Indicators Remain Bullish Overall
-McClellan Oscillators Turn Bearish
-Stocks and Bonds Disconnect
-China and Japan Lag
-Stocks: ADSK, AMZN, ANF, INTC, PENN and SHLD
-Click here for the video page.

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