Art's Charts

SPY Fails to Follow Through as TLT Surges to New High

Stocks were hit with concerns in Europe again on Wednesday. Once again, the market failed to put together back-to-back gains and failed to follow through on Tuesday’s advance. All major index ETFs were down with small-caps leading the way. Large-cap techs held up relatively well as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) declined less than 1%. All nine sectors were lower with the Energy SPDR (-3.07%) and the Finance SPDR (-2.33%) getting hammered. The defensive sectors held up the best as the Utilities SPDR (XLU), Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) declined less than .30%.

SPY Breaks Triangle Resistance, but Rising Flag Takes Shape

June is shaping up to be one critical month. Worse-than-expected economic reports this week would solidify the medium-term downtrends in the major index ETFs. Another Euro crisis after the Greek elections could keep buyers at bay even longer. A slight majority of US economic reports have been worse-than-expected the last 6-8 weeks and it is clear that European leaders are well behind the curve. Elsewhere, the Chinese Flash PMI was 48.7 and the Eurozone PMI was 45.90, both of which suggest economic contraction. In short, the major index ETFs are in medium-term downtrends and the negative news flow is backing up these trends.  

Stocks Prepare for Risk Rebound, but Euro and Treasuries Balk

Stock futures are up sharply this morning as the world takes a small bite of risk. Stocks are higher in Asia with Shanghai and Australia up just over 1%. European stocks are higher, but only modestly so with most major indices up around .50%. Oil futures are following the risk-on rebound with a $1 gain and gold is up almost $20. I am not sure if this rally will have legs because Europe is not up that much and the Euro is only slightly higher. Also notice that treasury futures are relatively flat. A true risk-on rebound would see the Euro moving sharply higher and treasuries moving sharply higher. These two hold the key to the risk-on and risk-off trades.

Charts of Interest: ALTR, AMAT, BHI, FNSR, PNC, RIG

Careful out there. It could be a very volatile week.
AMAT Forms Harami at Oversold Levels.
PNC Stalls at Support.
RIG Becomes Oversold and Consolidates.
Plus ALTR, BHI, FNSR

Five of Nine Sector Bullish Percent Indices Are Below 50% $BPDISC $XLY

The indicator summary remains firmly bearish with nine of ten indicator groups now in the bearish camp. The Bullish Percent Index joined the bears as five of the nine sector BPIs moved below 50%. The AD Volume Lines clearly broke support to start downtrends this month. New lows expanded significantly in May and the cumulative Net New Highs lines turned down. The support breaks in the major index ETFs are holding.

SPY Forms Pennant - GLD Bounces off Low

After meandering for most of the day Thursday, stocks caught a late bid and moved higher in the final hour. Except for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), which closed down .66%, the major index ETFs were slightly higher on the day. The sectors were mixed with the Technology SPDR (XLK) leading the three losers (-.57%) and the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) leading the six winners (+.97%). The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) was also strong with a .95% gain on the day. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is nearing its moment-of-truth as it returns to broken support, which turns into resistance. A steep rising flag or wedge may be taking shape.

SPX Bounces off 1300 and Treasuries Remain Strong

Let the roller coaster ride begin! Stocks started the day weak with the major index ETFs falling over 1% in the first two hours of trading. After firming for a few hours, stocks moved sharply higher in afternoon trading. Most of the major index ETFs closed with small gains. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) edged up .49% and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) gained a respectable .97% on the day. Six of the nine sectors were up with the three defensive sectors falling (consumer staples, healthcare and utilities). The materials sector led the leaders with a 1.19% gain. Trading is likely to be very tricky as rumors and volatility increase. The bigger trend for stocks is now down and I am suspending “Charts of Interest” until things settle down.

SPY Turns Indecisive as GLD Fails at Resistance

After a one day oversold bounce, stocks stalled on Tuesday as indecisive candlesticks formed on many charts. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Russell Microcap Fund (IWC) closed lower and showed relative weakness. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY), however, eked out a small gain and showed some relative strength. The nine sectors were mixed with four down and five up. The chart below shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with a spinning top candlestick forming. Notice that the open and close are nearly equal, which creates a small candlestick body.  Intraday, the ETF surged above 133 and plunged below 131.50, but ended in the middle of its range. Again, a finish in the middle reflects a stalemate between bulls and bears.

XLF Forms Harami - SPY Scores Biggest Gain Since mid March

Stocks rebounded on Monday with mid-caps leading the charge and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) surging 3.82% on the day. All sectors were higher with materials, technology, energy and industrials gaining over 2%. Many of the hardest hit sectors and industry groups saw the biggest gains with this snapback rally. The Finance SPDR (XLF) was the exception as this key sector lagged the market with a paltry 1% gain on the day. On the chart below, XLF formed a harami just above the 200-day moving average. This candlestick pattern signals indecision that sometimes foreshadows a short-term reversal. I am not sure if this bounce is coming because the JP Morgan Chase trading loss is likely to increase and the regulation hounds are out in force.

Charts of Interest: CME, CTSX, HOTT, IMN, ISIL, LUV, SHLD

CME Surges off Key Retracement.
ISIL Forms Pennant after High Volume Surge.
LUV Breaks Flag Resistance on Big Volume.
Plus CTXS, HOTT, IMN, SHLD