Art's Charts

Indicator Summary Improves as June Rally Extends

The June run is set to continue with stock futures up sharply on Friday. Continued strength means the indicator summary is improving. Note that the NYSE AD Line and NYSE Net New Highs are bullish. The Bullish Percent Indices are bullish on the whole and the volatility indices fell sharply in June. This still looks like a counter trend rally within a bigger downtrend, but the advance is testing the limits of this downtrend.

SPY Holds Support for a Fifth Time - FXE Set to Surge

Stocks ended mixed on Thursday as sharp rallies in the final hour paired losses significantly. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) still lost over 1%, but the S&P Midcap SPDR (MDY) closed up .30% on the day. The nine sector SPDRs were mixed with four up and five down. With a strong open expected today, stocks will attempt to extend the bounce that started with the early June reversal. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) can be seen zigzagging higher this month with a series of rising peaks and rising troughs. Key support is set at this week’s low, which is also near the 200-day moving average.

XRT Underperforms - GLD Forms Bearish Pennant

Stocks extended their oversold bounce with modest gains on Wednesday. All major index ETFs were up with the Russell 2000 ETF leading the way (+1.63%). The Dow Industrials SPDR, S&P 500 ETF and Nasdaq 100 ETF were up less than 1%. Eight of the nine sectors were up with the Energy SPDR (XLE) surging over 2%. XLE managed to hold its June low and bounced back to 64. A double bottom could be taking shape, but the trend is down until the pattern is confirmed with a break above the mid June high. 

Charts of Interest: AEO, AMZN, AAPL, DRI, HOTT, SBUX, URBN

AEO Fails at Resistance.
AAPL Stalls with Tablet War.
HOTT Does not Look so Hot.
Plus AMZN, DRI, SBUX, URBN

SPY Gets Oversold Bounce - GLD Falls after Short Bounce

 

Stocks got an oversold bounce on Tuesday with the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) leading the way. The gains, however, were quite modest with MDY up just .67% and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edging higher by .50%. Nothing to write home about for sure. Stocks are probably treading water head of the healthcare ruling. All sectors were up with the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Energy SPDR (XLE) leading the way. Both gained over 1%. XLY has been one of the more resilient sectors this year, but I am not ready to write off the rising wedge break just yet.

SPX Sets Up Test of 200-day as GLD Recoups Support Break

Stocks moved sharply lower on Monday with an extremely weak opening. The major index ETFs gapped down on the open, drifted lower throughout the morning and then edged off their lows in the afternoon. Even though selling pressure abated in the afternoon, buying pressure was certainly uninspiring and the gaps remained. All sectors were lower with the Finance SPDR (XLF), Technology SPDR (XLK) and Energy SPDR (XLE) falling over 2%. The defensive sectors (XLV, XLP, XLU) held up the best and had the smallest losses. Taking a long-term and institutional perspective, the S&P 500 is setting up for another test of the 200-day moving average in the 1300 area.

Charts of Interest: ABX, AFFX, CX, HD, MS, NVDA, UTHR

ABX Forms ABC Falling Wedge.
HD Struggles at Resistance.
NVDA Tests Gap Zone with Small Wedge.
Plus AFFX, CX, MS, UTHR

SPY Breaks Wedge Support as UUP Breaks Wedge Resistance

It is shaping up to be another big week on Wall Street and in Europe. On the news front, we have some key economic reports, another critical EU Summit and a potential ruling on healthcare reform. On the technical front, note that the major index ETFs failed at broken support levels and the 61.80% retracement lines with Thursday’s sharp decline. Even though stocks firmed on Friday and inside days formed, last week’s high could mark a significant peak. At worst, the bigger downtrend is continuing, which means the major index ETFs will move below their early June lows.

Indicator Summary Improves, But Remains Bearish Overall

Stocks made a valiant run in June, but it was cut short with Thursday’s sharp decline. Even though a few indicator groups were upgraded, the bulk of the evidence remains bearish. Strength within the NYSE, pushed the NYSE AD Line sharply higher and NYSE Net New Highs into positive territory the last few weeks. However, the NYSE and Nasdaq AD Volume Lines remain below their support breaks and clearly bearish. The Bullish Percent Indices turned bullish as six of nine moved above 50%. We can expect some upgrades after a strong counter-trend rally. More importantly, the June highs now mark key levels to watch going forward. You can read more about this indicator summary on the about page.

SPY Fails at Key Retracement - GLD Fails to Hold Breakout

The market started the week in risk-on mode, but made a sharp u-turn on Thursday with a move to risk-off. The major index ETFs were down sharply with small-caps (IMW) and mid-caps (MDY) leading the way. Both lost over 2.5% on the day. All sectors were down with the Energy SPDR (XLE) plunging over 4% and the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) falling over 3%. Homebuilders, which led the market higher from January to April, fell sharply as the Home Construction iShares (ITB) lost over 3% and the Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) declined 4.62%. It was a strong decline that pushed almost all boats under water.