Commodities Countdown

Can Energy Bounce Here? - Webinar Skim 2017-02-09

The Energy Sector (XLE) is trying to bounce off the uptrend line. There is also a horizontal support line and the 200 DMA just below. 

Based on the KST it looks a little early. Looking through a lot of individual energy charts, they are at support. The kick up in XLE on Thursday is worth watching. There is a seasonal tendency higher for energy at this time of year.

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Is The Market Ready To Spawn Or Yawn? Webinar Skim 2017-01-26

My conversations about the markets with friends this week had echos of market love everywhere, and that's a good thing! Broadly, almost every index broke out to new all time highs. The $RUT has a little more work to do to put up the New High banner. Net New Highs soared massively. These big bullish moves don't need arguing. The important thing to notice in my mind is the lack of ballast in the market. No one is cautious here. Long and strong is the theme, but the commentary team at StockCharts.com are watching for changes to help us keep the profits. So this is not a bearish article, but it does show some charts of a euphoric market that is moderating support. This article aims to help keep a ballast. This should not create analysis paralysis, it should emphasize the tools we have to help us allocate new money using the sector summary tool described below.


Here is an example of a moderating chart. I'll use an indicator almost exclusive to StockCharts.com as it is one of the few places on the web hosting Pring Diffusion indicators. This uses the 30 components of the Dow ($INDU) which hit the 20000 level this week. The indicator is Martin Pring's Dow Diffusion Indicator (!PRDIFDOW). Follow this link to learn more about Diffusion Indicators by Martin Pring. Notice the indicator is still above the 15 level, but that is a pretty good place for inflection. In 2014, there were two false incidents, but other than that, pretty consistent place to capture profits for short term swing traders.

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Nothing Like A Nuclear Echo - Webinar Skim 2017-01-19

The commodities markets have been relatively calm recently with the execption of the Uranium mining stocks. They went on a tilt-a-whirl last week. It wasn't the change in Presidential leadership that caused it. It was Cameco, the large uranium miner, supplying a statement suggesting analyst estimates were way ahead of where Cameco management sees 2017 results. As we have been following the Nuclear ETF (NLR) and the Uranium ETF (URA) on the weekly webinars, the shock move was big on the URA which represents miners, but not on the NLR which is predominantly Utility companies with power plants based on Nuclear energy.

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New Year New Ideas - Webinar Skim 2017-01-05

One of the amazing parts about the market is how something can run for an entire year and then be off the table for the next year. Nike topped out in November 2015 and finished 2016 as one of the worst Dow stocks. With horrific retail sales numbers from some of the stores, Visa goes ballistic, up 4% in three trading days. Natural Gas goes ballastic for 2016 and drops huge on the first day of the year. So the work continues to find the big movers of 2017 and we've only got 51 weeks to get going. 

Some of the oil companies are sitting on year long trends. An example would be Apache who found a massive 3 Billion barrels of oil this past year in one of the largest "on-land" rather than offshore finds.

Oil is in the middle of an outside week. The problem here is the oil companies have not followed or led oil higher to the $55 level on the $WTIC chart. Some caution is required on the Oil Co's here.

Here is the USO chart showing Friday's trading level at time of writing. Unchanged from Year end.

Gold has turned up, since the 24th of December. Now the hard part begins, will it hold the gains?

There was a lot of big picture thinking for the 2017 year for Commodities in general like basic materials. There are some compelling charts on the webinar that will give you a new sense of interest in the commodity trade for 2017. Here is a link to the quickly paced webinar! Commodities Countdown 2017-01-05.

Commodities Countdown LIVE! with Greg Schnell - 2017-01-05 17:00 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.

Probably the most compelling part of the story might be the change in the $USD and some of the ramifications around that. Whether it is short term or starting to play out in the bigger picture is what we have to watch for. Check out the webinar this weekend. I think you'll find the webinar makes a strong case for staying tuned into the Commodities Countdown webinar this year!


I have two upcoming special event webinars in January. On top of the regular ones, I will be doing two more this month. One is with Tom Bowley on Saturday, January 14th at 11 AM ET. This will be exclusive to StockCharts subscribers. This webinar will be jam packed and probably hit the limit in terms of number of registrants of our GotoWebinar plan. I strongly encourage you to enroll early! Tom Bowley and Greg Schnell 2017 Market Look.

Secondly, I will be kicking off the Saturday morning presentations at Chart Summit 2017 on January 28th, 2017. This is a free two day webinar only event organized by my good friend JC Parets at AllStarCharts.com and the MTA (Market Technicians Association). Please use this registration link to register! Chart Summit 2017 This will be a massive -free- online charting event. The speaker list is truly exciting including Arthur Hill of StockCharts.com as well! 18 Speakers! Please use this registration link to register! Chart Summit 2017


If these Commodity Countdown articles have tweaked your interest, thank you for taking the time to follow my work. StockCharts finished the year with more members than ever before. Thousands of market watchers find huge value in StockCharts.com every day. We would be honoured to be part of your market review team. Allow me to take a moment to share some of our efforts to help you analyze the market. 

StockCharts.com won an industry award in 2016 for the Best Technical Analysis Commentary Team. It has the lowest priced subscription to the best commentary team on the web. Our 'Basic' membership gets you access! Check out pricing at $155 annually. Is it possible any other Technical Analysis company has as broad a commentary team for you at this low subscription?

I feature a Commodities Countdown article every week on the Commodities Countdown blog and webinar series. If you would like to stay tuned into Commodities and try to follow my thoughts on the macro concepts for the equities, currencies and bonds, please join me. You can subscribe at the bottom of this Commodities Countdown blog. You can register for the webinar on the home page of StockCharts each week. I also keep changing a small chartlist that has some important charts for Commodity investors. You can access that here all year long. If you liked my success in 2016, perhaps we can keep it going in 2017. I also keeps a blog for Canadian investors as well. That blog has been running for 5 years. The Canadian Technician Blog

StockCharts members enjoy unique privileges. Access to the members only work by John Murphy (4 Books), Martin Pring(20 Books), Arthur Hill (1 Book), Tom Bowley and Erin Heim authors starts with basic membership. Tom and Erin have some free content as well. 

Specifically for members, our top three authors are member only. John Murphy has written a market message for 16 years which is a StockCharts favorite. Martin Pring posts an article a week and a webinar that is filled with his unique indicators available on StockCharts. Arthur Hill is a fantastic author who has some of the most detailed work for trend following. Look inside our pricing module today.

Tom Bowley writes a daily snapshot in the morning and offers a couple of webinars each week. Some webinars are for members and some are for the broader audience. Tom receives a lot of positive comments about his morning review.

If you hired an assistant to help you be aware of all of the new signals in the market, they would compile spreadsheets and major trends on your behalf and put them on your desk. StockCharts.com goes above and beyond that for an additional $95.00 a year.  Twice a week, Erin Heim gives a "news broadcast" style webinar on signals through the Decision Point methodology and she publishes four new reports every day. The reports are a fantastic compilation for you, rather than hiring a full time assistant. This is included with your 'extra' membership to StockCharts.com. At $249.00, that is less than a dollar per trading day (253 days last year). It is only $0.40 a day more than a basic membership with four fantastic reports every day as well as a weekly report. Hard to hire staff for $0.40 a day. Crazy good value! Decision Point ReportsLook inside our pricing module today.

Julius De Kempenaar, creator of RRG charts, regularly writes articles explaining momentum and relative strength. RRG software helps to visualize market rotation. This is one of the brightest improvements in Technical Analysis through the last ten years.

We also have Gatis Roze, Greg Morris and Bruce Fraser who share their years of experience. There is also a Top Advisors Corner with numerous authors putting forward ideas for you. Hopefully this broad diverse view of the markets helps you understand why our Technical Analysis team is so compelling.Look inside our pricing module today.

Why become a Pro member at StockCharts? You can have up to 10 Price panels on one chart, so you can watch all the major market clues in one place. You get 5 second automatic chart refreshes at this level. You can have 50 technical alerts at any one time, that notify you about any condition on any stock you want. StockCharts will text it to you, email it or flash it on your screen. You can look back in time, 50 years or more in some cases to see historical examples of extremes. This is very helpful in understanding stretched markets up or down. A good example is the $CRB chart shown above. For less than $50/month, you can have 350 ChartLists, alerts, custom scans, Decision Point reports as well as all of the commentary and webinars. Look inside our pricing module today.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.

 
 

$USD Chart - Treasure Map For 2017?

2016 marked a breakout on the $USD above a 2 year consolidation. But the big picture on the $USD is probably the most important at this level at this time of year. Lets walk through some charts. 

On the chart below, which is monthly, there are a lot of $USD reversals in direction around the first of the year.

1985, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994,1995,1997,1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2016 all have a reversal within a few weeks either side of the new year.  21 out of 32 years is a high expectancy.

Another factor for the Dollar is the current set up is eerily reminiscent of the 1999 mid year top around 104.50 where the blue arrow is. After working hard to get through the 100 level, the dollar pulled back in late 1998. Then it surged up, breaking out by a couple of cents above the 102 level, only to roll over, go back and retest the support on the breakout. The dollar fell almost 7 points before reversing at 97 and making a spectacular 2-year run to 121. As you can see, the charts are set up extremely similar from 1987-1997 and 2004 to 2014. Even the price action on the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is quite similar. So if the $USD were to pull back 5 - 7 points to get back under the 100 and check for support one more time, this would still keep the same set up intact. All that to suggest, we may have seen this movie in the dollar before.

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The Markets Need To Digest A Soaring US Dollar - Webinar Skim 2016-12-15

Well, the US Dollar continued it's assault on new highs. But more importantly, it is soaring relative to all the other currencies in the Dollar Index. I'll have more on that in a bit, but the market is starting to look a little stretched.  The one thing that is concerning is how far we have moved away from the moving averages.

Continue reading "The Markets Need To Digest A Soaring US Dollar - Webinar Skim 2016-12-15" »