Commodities Countdown

Commodities Stocks Wiggle While Dow Soars Through 21000 - Total Active Symbols

For such an outstanding broad based rally by the overall market, I found the rally size was pretty small in the Commodities pillar of the market.

The Gold stocks (GDX) rallied 1/2%. While a rally is great, when it underperforms the broad index rally by less than 1/2 the size, it is a bit underwhelming. The 50 DMA has been nice support and resistance for the Gold Miners for over a year. Today was a bounce off the 50 DMA. Perhaps its the start of a new rally. If it had led the market today, that would have been a little better clue. At this point, it looks more like it got dragged upward with the market.

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Commodities: The Moment Of Truth Has Arrived

Commodity related stocks had a ridiculously bad day by any sort of measure. Gold was up $18 and the GDX hardly budged. Oil stocks have been unable to rally this week with crude oil testing a small breakout, only to reverse. The Metals ETF broke a year long trend line today. The Uranium related ETF broke the 2017 trend line. The Copper ETF broke its trend line. The Steel ETF keeps struggling at resistance.

The big picture question for me: If Commodities can't get any love in a big roaring bull market, when are they going to get some? Based on today's failures across the board, soon doesn't appear to be one of the options.

In the primary pane below, the Gold stocks:Gold ratio (GDX:GLD) has broken its trend line and was a pretty good sell signal in August. Today's action is easy to see in the zoom panel. Gold up sharply, no response from the miners. Extreme caution is warranted.

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There Are Mixed Signals In Commodities

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett

With the current fire lit under the Equities markets and no fire truck in sight, it seems that everyone is unabashedly bullish. Various breadth indicators including the Net New Highs, the Advance Decline lines, the McClellan Summation Indexes, the Volume Summation Indexes, Bullish Percent Indexes, and the Percent of stocks above the 200 DMA are all screamingly bullish. While the market soars, these charts continue to support the data.

The Net New Highs ($NYHL) chart is wonderfully bullish.

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Can Energy Bounce Here? - Webinar Skim 2017-02-09

The Energy Sector (XLE) is trying to bounce off the uptrend line. There is also a horizontal support line and the 200 DMA just below. 

Based on the KST it looks a little early. Looking through a lot of individual energy charts, they are at support. The kick up in XLE on Thursday is worth watching. There is a seasonal tendency higher for energy at this time of year.

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Is The Market Ready To Spawn Or Yawn? Webinar Skim 2017-01-26

My conversations about the markets with friends this week had echos of market love everywhere, and that's a good thing! Broadly, almost every index broke out to new all time highs. The $RUT has a little more work to do to put up the New High banner. Net New Highs soared massively. These big bullish moves don't need arguing. The important thing to notice in my mind is the lack of ballast in the market. No one is cautious here. Long and strong is the theme, but the commentary team at StockCharts.com are watching for changes to help us keep the profits. So this is not a bearish article, but it does show some charts of a euphoric market that is moderating support. This article aims to help keep a ballast. This should not create analysis paralysis, it should emphasize the tools we have to help us allocate new money using the sector summary tool described below.


Here is an example of a moderating chart. I'll use an indicator almost exclusive to StockCharts.com as it is one of the few places on the web hosting Pring Diffusion indicators. This uses the 30 components of the Dow ($INDU) which hit the 20000 level this week. The indicator is Martin Pring's Dow Diffusion Indicator (!PRDIFDOW). Follow this link to learn more about Diffusion Indicators by Martin Pring. Notice the indicator is still above the 15 level, but that is a pretty good place for inflection. In 2014, there were two false incidents, but other than that, pretty consistent place to capture profits for short term swing traders.

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Nothing Like A Nuclear Echo - Webinar Skim 2017-01-19

The commodities markets have been relatively calm recently with the execption of the Uranium mining stocks. They went on a tilt-a-whirl last week. It wasn't the change in Presidential leadership that caused it. It was Cameco, the large uranium miner, supplying a statement suggesting analyst estimates were way ahead of where Cameco management sees 2017 results. As we have been following the Nuclear ETF (NLR) and the Uranium ETF (URA) on the weekly webinars, the shock move was big on the URA which represents miners, but not on the NLR which is predominantly Utility companies with power plants based on Nuclear energy.

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