Commodities Countdown

Sitting In A European Bank Waiting Room - Webinar Skim 2016-07-21

It's been a month since the Brexit storm rolled through the world's charts. Amazingly, it turned out to be one of the best times to put money to work. One of the blogs I wrote shortly after the Brexit event covered off the global banking charts. When Should You Think About Protecting Your Portfolio ...Ideas Inside. In the concluding paragraph, I said this was not a reason to sell everything. It was a reason to make sure you were in the best-performing stocks. Now we sit having a massive bounce off the lows that broke out charts globally to all-time highs, new 52 week highs, or above down-sloping trend lines.

So what's next? We can see on the ETF chart for European Financials (EUFN) that the stocks dropped 24% and then bounced almost 13%. I have put the Fibonacci retracement levels from the night before Brexit to the lows on the chart. The European banks have rallied back up about 38.2% of the Brexit drop. Some of the European banks are asking for the European Central Bank to recapitalize the European banks. For that, we need to turn to Mario Draghi.

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Where Is Crude Oil ($WTIC) Headed?

Crude Oil ($WTIC) continues to drift down. After pushing up near $50 in mid-May, it took 3 weeks to finally break through, surging to $51. That breakout failed to hold and we have been grinding lower since the June 9th closing high. The numerous tests of the blue channel line have worked us up against the red downtrend. We are at a decision point. Some technically important levels have built up.

  • The 200 DMA is at $41.
  • Looking left, the market spent two months bouncing off the $43 level.
  • The $44.42 level is our low since the June top.
  • A break through the red downtrend line to the topside puts the 50 DMA in play at $48.
  • The horizontal resistance sits at $50. 

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Commodities Near Two Week Lows - Webinar Skim 2016-07-14 - New Global Bull Market?

The commodities have pulled back gently this week near two-week lows. In the face of the commodities pulling back, global markets have rallied. Financials have rallied globally and JPM fuelled a broad bank rally. You can click here to watch the webinar where I covered off the potential for a bull market globally.

Commodities Countdown LIVE! with Greg Schnell - 2016-07-14 17:00 from on Vimeo.

Webinar // $CRB Commodities 0:00 // Gold & Gold Miners 10:00 // Industrial Metals 13:30 // GSCI 16:00 // Breadth 19:00 // Bonds 27:00 // Transports 30:00 // Autos 33:00 // Global Checkup 37:00 // Industrial Stocks 48:00 // Q & A 50:00 //

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Do You Think Gold Miners Have Made Exceptional Moves?

Since March, Gold has performed in line with the $SPX. However, Gold miners have continued to run, long past the strength in Gold. To put this in perspective, the price of Gold shown by the Gold tracking ETF (GLD), has moved 29.7 % and the Gold miners have run 144.7 %. To watch the Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which is an average of sorts, move 144% in 7 months, has been amazing. 

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What A Difference A Week Makes - Webinar Skim 2016-07-07

This week was a little hard on the commodities. In general, almost everything went down with the exception of Gold and Silver. I outlined areas of support for Crude Oil around $41. Corn and Wheat had awful weeks, and Soybeans is looking toppy. The big story this week are the bonds, and the webinar talked a lot about the setup for the second half of the year.

Commodities Countdown LIVE! with Greg Schnell - 2016-07-07 17:00 from on Vimeo.

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Commodities Roar - Webinar Skim 2016-06-30

Commodities had an exciting week, trading wildly on the swings from Brexit. Natural Gas, Gold and Silver surged higher. Oil dripped lower and bounced back into the 6-week range. Coffee and sugar continued to perform well.

Natural Gas broke above the base at $7 on the UNG chart a month ago. Now it has moved above the 200 DMA and maintains a nice continuous uptrend.

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When Should You Think About Protecting Your Portfolio - Part 2

This is a continuation of the article: "When Should You Think About Protecting Your Portfolio? - Ideas Inside."  Click on the link to read it first.

HSBC is one of the world's largest banks residing in the UK. With an SCTR ranking of 16.9, it is still in the bottom quartile for large-cap price performance. We can see the highs of $49 and $48 in 2013 and 2014 have created a ceiling for the stock. With a downtrend firmly in place, the stock has tested the 6-year low level of $27.75 a couple of times this year. So far it is holding. However, the volume soared to 4-year highs with a very weak momentum signature on the MACD. 

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When Should You Think About Protecting Your Portfolio? Ideas inside....

Since the sub-prime financial crisis, there has been a lot of discussion about Too-Big-To-Fail, Bank Stress Tests, and Central Banks using unique tools to try and keep the market on an even keel. One of the problems in the world is the deeply indebted government entities. What makes that issue unique is our global commercial banks own government debt as AAA debt to support their loan book. The assumption is that sovereign nations can always raise taxes to get paid back. 

One of the keys to recognizing the Financial crisis in 2008 was that the banks started showing lower lows and lower highs while the indexes tried to make higher highs. Something seemed wrong.

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Shaken, Not Stirred, And A Little Dirty

Well, the market participants will be a little unnerved as they chew on their scones and clotted cream this weekend.

On Thursday's webinar, I connected the dots across currencies, global markets, and commodities going into the vote. There were a tremendous number of charts set up for a major move if the British vote was to remain. Obviously, this was not to be.

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