Trading Places with Tom Bowley

NASDAQ Breaks Out, Still Waiting On Dow

Market Recap for Monday, January 9, 2017

Dow 20k watchers were left hanging another day as the NASDAQ was the only major index to gain ground on Monday.  And speaking of lone leaders, healthcare (XLV, +0.42%) was the only sector to post a gain as falling crude oil prices ($WTIC) sent energy shares (XLE, -1.48%) reeling to only their second close beneath their rising 20 day EMA since this major rally began in early November.  Energy bulls will be under pressure to turn things around quickly or rely on the longer-term weekly chart for support.  Take a look:

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Dow 19999 - Close Enough?

Market Recap for Friday, January 6, 2017

Let's party like it's 1999.....9.  Do you think that big round numbers don't matter on Wall Street?  If so, you might want to think again.  Since December 13th, the Dow Jones ($INDU) has traded above 19950 on nine separate occasions without once clearing 20000, not even on an intraday basis.  Friday's high of 19999.63 stopped just 0.37 points shy of that magical number.  Is it really that meaningful though?  Not really, but it gives CNBC some material to talk about ad nauseam.

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Summary Of Sector Relative Strength By Calendar Month

Normally, I provide a daily blog article every day that the U.S. stock market is open.  That eliminates Saturdays and Sundays.  I'm making an exception today to share some historical information that I believe you'll find useful as you work your way through 2017.  Also, the following historical information will be a perfect lead in to a special webinar series that will begin next Saturday, January 14, 2017.  Greg Schnell and I will be co-hosting "2017 Stock Market Outlook" at 11am EST, providing some of our best ideas for 2017.  It's the first of a monthly series throughout 2017 where we'll look to provide education, timely commentary and delve into many of the useful tools and features at  It's a benefit we're providing to subscribers here at StockCharts.  There will be no charge for members.

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Financials Take Beating Amid Falling Treasury Yields

Market Recap for Thursday, January 5, 2017

The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) tumbled on Thursday, dropping more than 8 basis points to close at 2.37% - its lowest daily close since December 7th's 2.35% finish.  The sudden interest in treasuries could have been the result of a weaker-than-expected monthly ADP employment report, or perhaps the awful retail news from both Kohls (KSS) and Macy's (M).  But honestly, technical indications predicted a bit more buying in treasuries given the positive divergence that had formed on the TLT daily chart.  Have a look:

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Autos Gain Traction, Break Out To Lead Equities Higher

Market Recap for Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Materials (XLB, +1.46%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, +1.33%) were easily the two best performing sectors on Wednesday to lead our major indices to a second consecutive day of across-the-board gains in 2017.  There is a very strong correlation between January performance and performance the balance of the calendar year, so the strength thus far is noteworthy.

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Biotechs Lead Stocks To Open 2017

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Healthcare (XLV, +1.31%) took over sector leadership on Tuesday to open 2017 as the Dow Jones U.S. Biotechnology Index ($DJUSBT) jumped 2.05%.  It's not too surprising to historians as January tends to be very kind to both the healthcare sector and to biotechs more specifically.  Over the past 20 years, the XLV has outperformed the S&P 500 in January 15 times and the sector's average January outperformance is 1.6%, meaning that if the S&P 500 rises 1.0% for the month, the XLV theoretically jumps 2.6%.  Considering that's an average over a lengthy period, it's certainly worth noting.  Biotechs have averaged outperforming the S&P 500 by a 2.0% margin over that same period.

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U.S. Futures Strong, Crude Oil On The Move


First, I want to wish everyone a very happy new year!  Second, I'm excited to announce that Greg Schnell (think Canadian Technician and Commodities Countdown) and I will be co-hosting a Stock Market 2017 Outlook webinar in mid-January where we'll compare notes and share our thoughts about investing and trading in 2017.  It should be very educational, a bit opinionated and a whole lot entertaining so please prepare to join us.  More details about this exciting webinar will be forthcoming here on the site so be on the lookout!

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Banks Test 20 Day Along With TNX

Market Recap for Thursday, December 29, 2016

The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) closed at 2.48% and hit an intraday low of 2.46% to test its rising 20 day EMA for the first time since early November.  Not too surprisingly, the Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index ($DJUSBK) did the same thing.  Both have questionable MACDs as the first signs of slowing momentum surface.  I wouldn't read too much into this, however, as extremely overbought conditions have been persistent for weeks and both the TNX and DJUSBK deserve a period of rest and consolidation.

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Broad-Based Selling Finally Hits U.S. Stocks

Market Recap for Wednesday, December 28, 2016

It's been awhile since this happened, but on Wednesday all nine sectors declined, led by energy (XLE, -1.08%), industrials (XLI, -1.05%) and financials (XLF, -1.02%).  The carnage was evenly spread as consumer staples (XLP, -0.61%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, -0.69%) were the best performing sectors, but not much better than the worst.  Still, the overall market remains technically sound although a few cracks in the technical foundation are emerging.  The first issue could be industrials, which yesterday closed below its 20 day EMA for the first time since its latest rally began on November 7th.  Check it out:

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Oil Closes Near $54 Per Barrel; Home Construction Rises

Market Recap for Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Eight of the nine sectors rose on Tuesday with only consumer staples (XLP, -0.02%) losing ground.  The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 once again were the leading indices, powered by home construction ($DJUSHB) and renewable energy ($DWCREE).  Home construction looks very interesting on both its daily and weekly charts as trendline support continues to hold on both.  Here's the visual on both:

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