StockCharts.com - Blogs

The Never ending question of timing the market is a technicians dream. Knowing when you have hit a high, knowing when you have hit a low. Or knowing your on the wrong side of the trade because the Fed just stepped in. Last week the Fed melted the banks and inflated the Gold bulls. Meanwhile the ECB is inflating the banks. So Technical analysis works well, but a major fed announcement just a week before a scheduled fed meetings, or announcing changes in policy while New York is on lunch keeps reminding us that a new piece of data can change expectations.

One of the best at market momentum is Tom McLellan. I recently visited mcoscillator.com .. This is the home of McLellan Oscillators.

I was ultra impressed with Tom's ability to find tops and bottoms in the market. I think you will be as well. Check out these results.

Once again, the USD currency is dominating the market moves today. Slight change in direction in the $USD, and everything followed. The recent pullback in the USD has been aggressive. BUt look at bounce off the fibonacci retracement line. Typically, when things pull back, they pull back to one of the 3 main fib lines. By only pulling back 38% this would mean the USD is probably still in a roaring bull market.

Today the blog is puzzled.

Overbought indicators are rolling over... Telling me to get out of Dodge.

Price action....telling me to get out of Dodge. Actual price change, saying things are ok.

Since the 19th, Flat, Flat, Up on a Monday, Down on AAPL Day, Up on Fed day, Down on CAT day, flat to finish the week out.

Well Yesterdays FOMC meeting was interesting. The data came out earlier than I was expecting.I was also surprised that the Fed was so focussed on generating inflation and avoiding deflation at all cost it seems. Was this QE3? Don't fight the Fed?

The Metals market took that to heart. So did GOLD.

Here are the commodity sectors.

Look at this collection of charts, all at an interesting place in time

OK which one am I talking about?

 THe Nat gas trade or the long bond trade?

Well, it's the long bond trade.

Today, Let me present a simple chart of the $SPX from February 1 to August 1,2011. Then let's use the logic for the TSX. Then we'll take it back to the SP500.

I'm driving through the gas fields of southern Alberta today. Temperature is -32 C or minus 25 F.

How can Natural gas pricing stay this low...I don't know. But here is the real question.

How low can these Natural gas stocks go? Can they continue to get bank loans if the cash flow dries up?

Some companies produce a fluid called condensate with the natural gas which is even more valuable than regular crude oil due to the advanced chemicals contained in the condensate. So they have some wells that still make revenue, but wells that are called dry gas  are below profitability according to Encana's president.

So during my road trip, this will be a short blog. Here are the gas stocks. I started nibbling on some of these today. Either the gas price gets better soon, or the majors will start buying the juniors... something will break...Maybe my account. Some of these are 50% off the summer prices. Unbelievable. Crescent Point's market cap passed Encana....Yikes!

$Gold

This shiny metal is really keeping us guessing as to where it is going.

Today marks another very important point on the chart. Let's drill into it and see what's going on.

Here is the same chart zoomed in on the final year.

Here are the Canadian Sector charts.