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$Copper charts are updated on an EOD basis. EOD means End Of Day  in the chart title.

The live trading of Copper this morning is $3.23

That line is very important on the long term chart for copper.

So Copper is testing last years lows at $3.24 this morning. I don't have a real time price for copper but I saw it trade down to $3.23 on the BNN ticker this morning. Previously, we were talking about copper breaking a trendline support off the rising lows. Now we are testing the horizontal level. We'll watch for the close, but it made new 1 year lows intraday.

As you can see, that is a big support level that must hold. 

Good Trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT

Commodities blow out.

I realize Gold breaking the bottom of the triangle is the big news of the day. As that is pretty obvious, I wanted to review oil as it just blew up on the PnF chart as well.

This is the Oil chart which updates EOD. You can see the $81.00 price target has been there before the technical breakdown of support.

Life is tough as a phone maker these days.

The smart phone market is very competitive. The world is watching to see if they can survive.

This trendline was reistance in September /October and became support since. 

This looks like a Head / Shoulders topping pattern to me. Today we lost support of the trendline and the 50 DMA. Next support would be the 200 DMA if BBRY can not close the week back above the trendline.

Good Trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT.

Well, the $TSX found a place to bounce from today.

What I like about this is we have a pattern called a backtest. It breaks out, pulls back to the neckline (usually horizontal but a downward slope works), and bounces from there. 

After topping my coffee this morning, I started reviewing some charts. Some interesting charts in Europe needed more review. Lets work through them today.

As an aside, one of my favorite paraphrases comes from Jim Cramer about the European markets.

"I hate waking up in the morning and checking  on Europe. I have no network to check on the underlying."

So why is it my favorite? Because most of us are not Goldman Sachs alumni, nor do we live in the Metro Manhattan area with rolodexes of hedge fund managers  and CEO's to check in with on the US underlying. Jims weakness is our weakness every day. I  rely on the charts for my perspective.  You can make your own call on my comments, but hopefully this chart collection helps you to frame reference  points on investor attitudes towards Europe.

OK. Back to the Cappuccino review. The 5 countries below have populations around 60 million each so this is a pretty valid look from my perspective.

A quick view of the Monthly..Just setting reference levels.

So what do I notice on the really big picture? Just scan the right 1/2 of the chart and scroll through them.

$WTIC

Crude bounced off the top trendline and is headed into a seasonal weakness.

We will be looking for support at $92.50 and $91.00. What happens at those levels will be very important.

You can see that $BRENT has made a substantially lower high. Both $GASO and $HOIL are breaking down as well.

Time to be cautious. This is really important. $COPPER, $GOLD and $SILVER have all broken down. I see no reason for this chart to find support at the lower levels. But the market goes where it wants, not where I expect.

Good Trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT

Wow - the Canadian market spoke today. Down 260.

We have been watching a sideways pattern for 3 months. Today wiped out the gains YTD and the $TSX moved into negative territory.

A couple of more significant events were confirmed today as well.

1) We failed at the 12800 level that we have been testing and talking about recently.

2) We failed to find support at the bottom of the range.

3) We failed to find support at the previous breakout from the 12500 range. Previous resistance should have become support.

4) We failed a retest of 50 DMA in late March from the bottom trying to push up. That is a significant confirmation signal.

So let's review the Big Picture here.

Some of the charts lately have gone seemingly parabolic. The surprising thing is what sectors are going ballistic. Usually these are the slow and steady.

This is the action since mid February. 30 trading days. The $SPX is up, but these sectors have outperformed the $SPX by at least 3%.

What makes this particularly interesting is normally, when the cyclical stocks show seasonal weakness between April and July, the fund managers rotate into safety. When the dividend payers are already parabolic, will it still be safe to move into a sector like that?

Check out some of the staples and healthcare.

You can look at many of them, but just a few to mention PG,PFE,JNJ and GSK. SWY, SJR/B.TO.

Good Trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT

I've been nagging about how weak the commodities have been for a while. Some serious price levels are on the charts. It's timely to review the big picture. My personal list of the  major commodity countries are Australia, Brazil, Canada and Russia.

I want to focus in on these charts. Australia is a bright spot. Here is the chart.

It is very normal to watch the test of the 10 WMA. (DMA= Daily, WMA=weekly,MMA = Monthly). So far it looks very successful, but its very early (within a week).

As we sit here on the Equinox weekend for 2013, its time to look at the behaviour of black gold.

We have multiple ways to look at crude. We can do the futures curve. We can do the spot price. We can do $BRENT. We  can do $GASO. What we can not do is ignore the data. Crude has displayed seasonal weakness starting around April 1 for the last 3 years. In 2013, its starting early.

Crude oil started to move lower in early February. Recently in March, $WTIC pushed higher while $BRENT has continued to move lower. Looking up at the chart above, I have placed a blue line at the start of April each year using the cycle tool. What is concerning me is how crude normally continues to make highs into April 1 and then roll over. This year, crude price has faltered early.