DETERMINING "RISK-ON/RISK-OFF" TRADE

Happy Thanksgiving!

We view the ratio between stocks and bonds as a barometer for the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trade. Therefore, the recent upward movement in the ratio has our attention, and so too should it have our readers as it on the precipice of breaking out into a full-fledged "risk-on" bull market in stocks vs. bonds as the 170-week moving average looks to be violated to the upside given 40-week stochastic is turning higher in bullish fashion. This simply means that stocks shall gain at the expense of bonds, and more importantly - given the bond market has harbored the "risk-off" crowd, they will be forced into becoming buyers of stocks as they shall not want to see capital losses associated with falling bond prices/rising yields.

This is what the Fed Chairman wants; and he said so very eloquently in his November 3rd Washington Post Op-Ed piece. Those who bet against the Fed's unlimited balance sheet do so at their own peril.