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The chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Indexchallenging its mid-2012 high near 84. An upside breakout through that prior peak (which appears likely) would put the dollar at the highest level since mid-2010. The dollar has become the world's strongest currency. One of the reasons for the stronger greenback is the fact that the U.S. economy is now the strongest among developed markets. Another is chatter that the Fed is planning to cut back on bond purchases (quantitative easing) sooner rather than later. That's in contrast to other central bankers who are accelerating their easing process. Japan is the biggest example of that. But the weaker yen has forced the South Koreans to lower rates to weaken their currency (the won). [A plunging yen has pushed money into the higher yielding won which hurts South Korean exports that compete with Japan]. Europe has lowered rates to combat the longest recession in the postwar era. Australia has lowered rates to combat the deflationary impact of falling commodity prices and slowing Chinese demand. [80% of Australia's exports to China are natural resources]. The stronger greenback has a lot of intermarket implicatons for other markets, which include commodities and stocks.

Subscribers may remember that my Market Message from last December (20) carried the headline: "A Peak in the Yen Appears to be Dragging the Price of Gold Lower". The weekly bars in the following chart show the price of gold peaking during the fourth quarter of last year and tumbling to the lowest level in two years during 2013. The green line shows the U.S. Dollar rising against the yen during that same time span. The upturn in the dollar/yen (green circle) during October coincided exactly with the peak in gold. Since the start of October, the dollar has risen 24% against the yen, while gold has lost -21%. By contrast, the Dollar Index has risen only 5% during those eight months, while the Euro has been flat. That appears to confirm my December view that the plunging yen has been the main driver of falling gold prices, and not the USD which is dominated by the Euro.

- John

Thursday, April 25th I wrote about the technololgy sector being one of the markets weakest groups this year. That may finally be changing for the better. The chart below shows the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) exceeding its early April high to reach the highest level in six months. The XLK/SPX relative strength ratio (gray area) has also turned up. That's the first sign of upside leadership coming from the technology this year. Thursday's message suggested that an upturn in Apple (the sector's biggest stock) from an oversold condition would be a big help to the sector. It also showed Microsoft (the second biggest stock) breaking out to the upside. Over the past week, both stocks have gained 9% and 7% respectively. Another big teck stock that has turned up is Intel. So have some other semiconductor stocks.

Of all the commodity markets, copper is viewed as the most closely aligned with trends in the global economy. Copper and other commodities have been lagging behind global stocks over the past year (largely owing to a stronger dollar and weakness in Chinese stocks). This week's plunge in copper, however, finally caught the world's attention, and not in a good way. Chart 1 shows the price of spot copper plunging this week to the lowest level since October 2011. It had already fallen below the lower line of a long-term "symmetrical triangle" which signaled that its trend was weakening. One of the worst performing stocks is tied to copper. Chart 2 shows Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) tumbling to a two-year low this week. Its relative strength line (gray area) had been falling for the past year. [FCX is primarily a copper stock]. The copper breakdown calls into question the strength of the global economy which, in turn, is causing nervous profit-taking in global stock markets.

This is the same headline used in my March 21 message which showed how falling commodities were hurting stocks of countries that produced commodities. A rising dollar causes foreign stocks to underperform U.S. stocks, which has been the case since the dollar bottomed during 2008. A rising dollar hurts commodity prices. As a result, foreign countries that produce and export commodities take a double hit. The March 21 message showed the close positive correlation between commodity prices and Brazil and Canada. Today, I'm adding Russia to the mix. Chart 1 compares the trend in the CRB Index (bottom line) to Brazil (blue line), Canada (red line), and Russia (green line) iShares since 2009. You can see the visual correlations. All four markets rose together until the spring of 2011. The CRB Index peaked that spring (thanks to a rising dollar), and has continued to weaken. Brazil, Canadian, and Russian stock ETFs peaked at the same time and have continued to weaken along with commodities. Russia's stock market is especially sensitive to trends in energy, which is its biggest export market. Relative weakness in the Chinese stock market (which is the world's biggest importer of commodities) has also hurt demand for commodities and country stocks that produce them.

The monthly bars in Chart 1 plot the U.S. Dollar Index since 2001. Two major trends are seen on the chart. The first is the major downtrend in the dollar between 2002 and 2008. During 2008, the USD broke its six-year down trendline which ended its bear market. Since then, the USD has trended sideways in what appears to be a major bottoming pattern (see parallel lines). To complete that bullish pattern, the USD would have to clear its 2009-2010 highs. Although that hasn't happened yet, it isn't too soon to consider the possible implications of the dollar becoming the world's strongest currency for the first time in more than a decade. The most obvious implication is that the dollar will do better than most foreign currencies. That makes the dollar a much better bet. Chart 2 shows what has happened to the world's two biggest foreign currencies since the dollar bottom during 2008. The Euro peaked that year and has fallen since then. [The Euro has the biggest weight in the USD]. The orange line shows the Japanese Yen peaking during the fourth quarter and tumbling during this quarter. Forex traders have been buying the dollar and selling the Euro and yen (as well as most other foreign currencies). Currency trends reflect how the world views economic prospects for the various economies. Dollar strength suggests that the U.S. economy is in better shape than most foreign markets. There are other intermarket implications of a stronger dollar. One of the most obvious is its impact on commodity markets.

A lot of traders and investors are waiting for the bull market in gold to resume. They may have a very long wait. That's because a lot of traditional chart, technical, and intermarket signs are now working against gold. Let's start with a long-term look. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the major bull move in gold that lasted from 2001 to 2011. The rising trendline drawn on the log chart is still intact. [A log price scale measures percentage price changes and is better for long-term trendline analysis]. But the two indicators shown on the chart aren't. The orange line overlaid on the gold price is the 14-month RSI line which measures long-term market momentum. The last major peak in the RSI took place during 2011. The fact that it fell short of its 2008 peak formed a "negative divergence" with gold. Even worse, the RSI line has been dropping since 2011 (orange trendline). The RSI line is now approaching an important test of its 2008 low (dashed line). It it doesn't hold there, the long-term trend of gold should weaken further. The monthly MACD lines (top of chart) look even worse. The two lines turned negative at the start of 2012 (red arrow) and have fallen to the lowest level in three years. That's the worst downturn by the MACD lines since the bull market began in 2001.

SECTOR LEADERS YEAR TO DATE... Chart 1 plots relative strength ratios of the energy, financial, and industrial sectors versus the S&P 500 (the black zero line). Those three sectors have been the top performers year to date. Technology has been the weakest (on a relative basis). Let's start by taking a closer look at the two top sectors -- energy and financials.

ENERY ETFS ARE BREAKING OUT TO THE UPSIDE... The weekly bars in Chart 2 show the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) breaking out of a bullish "symmetrical triangle" (see circle). [A symmetrical triangle is defined by two converging trendlines. Since it's a "continuation" pattern (and the prior trend was up), it's a bullish pattern]. The XLE is now challenging its early 2011 high. A rise above that barrier (which appears likely) would pave the way for an eventual rise to its 2008 peak. Its relative strength ratio (gray area) has also turned up during 2013 for the first time in two years. The weekly bars in Chart 3 show the Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) rising above a "neckline" drawn over its 2012 peaks (circle). Its relative strength line (gray area) has also turned up.

FINANCIALS REACH FOUR-YEAR HIGH... It's usually a good sign for the stock market when financial stocks are in a leadership role and in an uptrend. That's certainly the case on both points. Chart 4 shows the Financials Sector SPDR (XLF) having risen above its 2011 peak to reach the highest level since 2008 (see circle). That represents a major bullish breakout and suggests that the bottoming pattern that started in 2009 has been completed. Its relative strength ratio (gray area) has also been rising and and is now at the highest level in nearly two years. The XLF includes a wide range of financial stocks that include banks, brokers, insurance, financial service companies, and REITS.

My Thursday message showed the Power Shares Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) on the verge of a technical breakdown. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the cash version of the Dollar Index. It too has a bearish look by showing the US Dollar Index threatening to fall below a "neckline" drawn under its 2012 lows. That would signal a drop in the $USD to it 2011 lows. [Thursday's message showed most of the dollar weakness coming from rising European currencies]. One asset class that would benefit from a falling dollar is commodities. That partially explains why commodities ended the week on a strong note. The weekly bars in Chart 2 show the DB Commodities Tracking Fund (DBC) climbing to a three-month high (brown circle). [The DBC includes 14 energy, metal, and agricultural commodities]. Chart 2 also shows the dollar (top of chart) and commodities trending in opposite directions over the last two years. A "neckline" is drawn on the commodity index over its 2012 highs (which matches the bearish "neckline" on the USD). Commodities are also starting to play catchup to a rising stock market and stronger economic signals. In that scenario, economically-sensitive commodities like energy and industrial metals should be the biggest gainers. Agriculturals and gold are commodity laggards.

Whenever we look at gold, it's a good idea to check on the trend of gold miners. The orange bars in Chart 1 show the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) still in a downtrend, but trying to stabilize. The first thing the GDX needs to do to improve its short-term trend is to clear initial resistance near 47.50 (orange line). It also needs to see stronger chart action in individual gold mining stocks. The black line plots the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM), which measures the percent of gold miners in point & figure uptrends. That line has been in a downtrend since October. It needs to see an upturn to support any meaningful rally in the GDX. The BPGDM has been flat-lining at 31. It would need to rally to 38 to signal a possible upturn. Chart 2 shows why. The most popular way to track turns in the Gold Miners BPI is with a point & figure chart which is shown in Chart 2. The X column shows an uptrend, while the O column marks a downtrend. Each box is worth 2 points. In order for the current down (O) column to achieve a three-box upside reversal and start a new X column, it would have to rise to 38. An upturn in the GDX would support any potential upturn in the price of gold.

One of the most impressive technical developments of Wednesday's stock surge was the ability of the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) to reach a record high. [The S&P 500 Midcap Index did the same]. The chart shows the RUT closing above previous highs reached during 2011 and 2012. Although not shown here, the RUT also cleared its 2007 peak. The blue line is a ratio of the RUT divided by the S&P 500. The ratio peaked in spring 2011 which began the correction/consolidation period that's existed since then. The ratio reached a new three-month high yesterday and broke its 18-month resistance line (blue circle). Given the tendency for small cap stocks to act as leaders for large caps on the upside, yesterday's bullish breakout is an encouraging sign for the rest of the market.

One of the most consistent intermarket principles is that gold (and most commodities) usually trend in the opposite direction of the U.S. Dollar. That inverse relationship has broken down of late. Chart 1 compares the Gold Trust (GLD) to the Dollar Index (UUP) over the last year. Both markets have trended in opposite direction throughout most of the year -- until recently. The dollar bottom during October coincided with a peak in gold which is normal. What isn't normal is that both market have fallen together over the last month. The 20-day Correlation Coefficient (below chart) shows their correlation turning positive. When something unusual happens in intermarket work, there's usually a reason why. Let's examine the UUP a bit closer for some clues. Although the Dollar Index (UUP) measures the dollar against six currencies, it's dominated by the Euro. The Euro is the biggest foreign currency in the UUP with a weighting of 57% (Europe's four currencies comprise nearly three-quarters of the UUP). Chart 2 shows that the Euro and gold usually trend in the same direction. That was the case until mid-November when a rising Euro coincided with falling gold. The 20-day Coefficient (below chart) turned has turned negative which is unusual. So the answer to the recent change in the gold/currency relationship doesn't come from the Euro. It may be coming from the yen.

Foreign stocks look technically stronger than the U.S. at the moment. Tuesday's message showed EAFE iShares testing their spring high. Emerging markets are rising as well. A more comprehensive measure of foreign stocks that includes developed and emerging markets is shown below. Chart 1 shows the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) in the process of testing highs formed during the spring of this year. An upside breakout would give a boost to foreign stocks. The dotted line overlaid on the chart is a relative strength ratio of the VEU divided by the S&P 500. As I suggested on Tuesday, foreign stocks have been rising faster than the U.S. (rising ratio) since mid-year after lagging behind the U.S. during most of the past year (because of a falling dollar). After acting as a drag on the U.S. during the first half, foreign stocks are now leading the U.S. higher. Chart 2 shows foreign shares (VEU) in a stronger position than the S&P 500 (the VEU has risen 20% since June versus 10% for the S&P. Since global stocks are highly correlated, an upside breakout by foreign stocks would increase the odds for higher U.S. shares.

Lumber prices surged Wednesday after the devastation on the east coast. [I live in New Jersey which was hit especially hard]. There's a lot of rebuilding that's going to be needed as a result And that's going to require a lot of lumber. Lumber has in fact been rising over the last year as the housing industry has recovered. The chart below shows a positive correlation between the price of lumber and Dow Jones Home Construction iShares (green area) over the last four years. The homebuilding index bottomed last October and has since risen to the highest level in four years. That also began a strong rally in the price of lumber (see arrows). The chart also shows lumber on the verge of breaking out of a large "ascending triangle" pattern. [An ascending pattern is identified by a flat upper line and a rising lower line and is usually a bullish pattern]. The improvement in housing and this week's east coast damage should combine to make the price of lumber a lot more expensive. One way to participate in that rally is to buy lumber futures. Another way is to buy stocks tied to lumber.

Insurance stocks are attracting a lot of new money into a reviving financial sector. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones US Property & Casualty Insurance Index surging to the highest level in five years. Its relative strength line (below chart) is starting to break out to the upside. The main catalyst behind today's buying is coming from Travelers. Chart 2 shows Travelers (TRV) surging to a new record high. New records are also being hit by Ace and Chubb. As good as their performance is, many investors may shy away from buying them because they've already had a strong run. Fortunately, there's another insurance group that's starting to attract new money, but looks a lot cheaper.

Two of the top performing assets since the September 13 launch of QE3 have been Treasury Inflation Protected Securites (TIPS) and gold. That makes sense considering that both are used as hedges against inflation. The fact is that both markets have had a strong correlation over the last decade. Chart 1 compares the performance of gold and the Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) over the last six years. That visual link between the two markets is confirmed by the Correlation Coefficient (below Chart 1) which was well into positive territory between 2007 and 2011. Their correlation weakened during 2012 (down arrow). Chart 2 shows the two markets diverging over the last year. While TIPS continued rising, gold prices fell. Gold's weakness appears to have been the result of a rising dollar (top of chart). The Correlation Coefficient (below Chart 2) turned up during September and has turned positive. Both markets are rallying together again. A lot of that has to do with QE3. The two purple lines show the launch of Operation Twist last October (first line) and QE3 on September 13 (second line). Both markets turned up during August in anticipation of QE3, and were two of the biggest gainers when it was launched. TIPS hit a record high during September, while gold broke a major down trendline. QE3 also weakened the dollar which gave a boost to gold and other commodity markets. Another effect of quantitative easing has been to push Treasury bond holders into higher-yield assets like high yield and investment grade corporate bonds and dividend-paying stocks. Meanwhile, Treasuries have become the weakest part of the fixed income group. That's due to historially low Treasury bond yields and fears of inflation further down the road. That's why investors are buying TIPS and gold.

The Fed announced that it will purchase $40 billion a month in mortgage backed securities which adds to its holdings of long-term securities and ushers in another round of quantitative easing (QE3). The markets have all reacted in predictable fashion. The dollar and bond prices are falling while commodities and stocks are rising. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) threatening to fall below its spring lows. As is normally the case, the falling dollar is giving a strong boost to commodities. Chart 2 shows the DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund (DBC) climbing to the highest level in six months. It has also broken a down trendline extending back to May 2011. Not surprisingly, precious metals are leading the commodity charge. Economically-sensitive industrial metals are also rallying.

My Tuesday message expressed the view that if a stock correction were to start, this would be a logical spot for that to happen. That's because several market indexes are testing spring highs, which is a normal spot for chartwatchers to take some profits. I also warned that light volume during the latest price advance during August showed lack of bullish enthusiasm on the part of traders (who may be be paring their bullish bets as the market nears the dangerous month of September). Light volume during a price advance is a warning signal. The volume bars at the bottom of Chart 1 shows trading activity dropping noticeably during the second half of August. In addition to that visual comparison, there are a couple of volume indicators that show the same lack of strong upside buying pressure The best known is on balance volume (OBV). OBV is a cumulative measure of daily upside versus downside volume. When prices rise, that day's entire volume is added to the total. Volume is subtracted on down days. The OBV line and the stock index price should trend in the same direction. A danger signal is given if the OBV line lags too far behind (or actually starts to drop). Chart 1 compares the S&P 500 (bars) to the red OBV line since the start of the year. Both peaked together during March and bottomed during June (notice that the OBV line turned up first). Since that June bottom, however, the red OBV line has lagged far behind the S&P 500. That has created a "negative divergence" between the two. Chart 2 compares the two over the last 15 months. Notice that the red OBV line turned up first last August and preceded the S&P bottom by two months (rising trendline). The opposite is now happening. The falling trendline this summer shows that the OBV may start leading stocks lower.

One of my previous messages showed a rotation out of small cap stocks into mega-caps in the middle of 2011 which continues to this day. That suggests that investors have been growing increasingly defensive over the last year.  The chart below provides graphic evidence that global stocks may have actually peaked last year as well. It shows the Vanguard Total World Index (VT) since 2009. [The VT includes stocks from all over the world in both developed and emerging markets. It has a surprisingly large weight to North America (51%). Europe accounts for 22%, emerging markets 13%, and the Pacific region 12%. The chart shows a major uptrend line being broken last summer (red circle). The VT has since formed a pattern of lower peaks (red trendline). Although the U.S. stock market has held up better than other global stocks, it too is influenced by global trends. This chart isn't encouraging.

Currency trends often us something about the mood of global traders, and which way they're starting to lean. In the ongoing battle between "risk-on" and "risk-off" trades, one of the markets worth keeping an eye on is the Australian Dollar. For a number of reasons, global traders buy the Aussie when they're turning more optimistic on global stocks and commodities. That's why the recent upturn in the Aussie Dollar may be a sign of a bit more optimism among global traders. Chart 1 plots the Australian Dollar (XAD) against the U.S. Dollar over the last eighteen months. The XAD has been trading sideways over the last year. After holding above its October low, however, the XAD has just reached a new three-month high against the U.S. currency. It's done even better against the Euro. Chart 2 shows the XAD soaring to a record high against the Euro. Chart 3 shows it also bouncing against the Japanese Yen.

Agricultural commodities have been on a tear over the last month. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Agricultural Fund (DBA) in a parabolic rise since mid-June. Most of that surge is coming from grain markets as the result of drought conditions in the midwest. Corn, wheat, and soybean prices have seen especially big gains. Chart 2 shows the Corn Fund (CORN) surging to the highest level in ten months. Notice the big jump in volume in both agricultural ETFs. One stock group that is starting to benefit from surging grain prices is fertilizer stocks. Farmers will need to buy more fertiilzer to plant bigger crops during the next growing season.

My Tuesday message showed falling commodity prices weighing on stock values. The same is true with Treasury bond yields which have fallen to record lows. Falling bond yields are symptomatic of economic weakness. Chart 1 compares the yield on the 10-Year T-Note (green bars) to the S&P 500 since the start of 2011. There's a positive visual correlation between the two markets, which is confirmed by the 60-day Correlation Coefficient (below chart). The current correlation is a very high .92. Falling bond yields during the first half of 2011 led to a stock market correction over the summer. Both bottomed together at the start of October. After that, stocks rose while bond yields stayed generally flat. Notice that a drop in the bond yields in mid-March led to a peak in stocks a couple of weeks late. Both have fallen together since then. The chart suggests it may take a higher bond yield to support higher stock prices.

BOND YIELDS AND COMMODITIES HIT NEW LOWS... Everywhere I look I see more serious warning flags for the U.S. stock market. Two of them are coming from recent breakdowns in bond yields and commodity prices. The chart below shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield (green line) and CRB Index (brown line) falling to new lows. Bond yields are now at the lowest levels in sixty years. Over the past few years, a positive correlation has existed between commodity prices, bond yields, and stock prices. That relationship weakened during the first quarter, but now appears to be re-asserting itself. Falling commodity prices imply global economic weakness. Falling bond yields imply the same. A collapsing Euro (along with foreign stocks) is pushing money into the relative safety of Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar. Rising bond prices equate to lower yields. A rising dollar equates to falling commodity prices. Falling bond yields and commodities are now leading to falling stock prices. The rising dollar is also taking a more serious toll on foreign stocks. Their technical condition looks a lot weaker than the U.S. Problem is weakness there causes weakness here as well.

FOREIGN HEAD AND SHOULDER TOP... I wrote about the possibility that foreign stocks were forming a "head and shoulder" top a couple of weeks ago. But I believe it bears repeating. That possibility really worries me. Judge for yourself. The next chart shows the Vanguard All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) from its 2009 bottom. In my view, the price pattern since the start of 2010 has the look of a potential H&S top. [A H&S top is defined by three peaks, with the middle peak (the head) surrounded by two lower peaks (the shoulders)]. Unless I'm seeing things, the chart below appears to be tracing out a textbook H&S top. The trendline drawn undere the 2010/2011 lows represents the "neckline". A decisive drop below that support line would complete the top and signal lower prices. [An alternate bearish view requires a close below the fourth quarter low]. Either way, the pattern scares me. If foreign stocks are in fact tracing out a major top, there's no way U.S. stocks will escape more serious damage. They may not fall as far, but they will fall some more.

DOLLAR INDEX BREAKS OUT TO THE UPSIDE... Money continues to flow into the safe haven of the U.S. Dollar. The first chart below shows the PowerShares Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) exceeding its January high to reach the highest level in eighteen months. Most of that gain is coming form a tumbling Euro. [The Euro accounts for 57% of the trend in the UUP]. The next chart shows the Euro tumbling to the lowest level since the summer of 2010. The last chart shows the Canadian Dollar tumblng as well (along with falling commodity prices). Some forex money is flowing into the safety of the Japanese yen (orange matter). At the moment, the four markets attracting safe haven money are the dollar, the yen, U.S Treasuries, and the German Bund.

Take care everyone,
John

What really worries me about the direction of stocks is the possibility that foreign stock indexes could be tracing out two-year "head and shoulder" tops. That's true of both developed and emerging markets. Chart 1 shows EAFE iShares tracing out a textbook "H&S" top. [A head and shoulders top is identified by three peaks with the middle peak (the "head") higher than the two surrounding "shoulders"]. The fact that the two shoulders are about the same height adds to the symmetry of the pattern. The "neckline" is the trendline drawn under the 2010-2011 lows. A decisive violation of that support line is a very bearish sign. It now looks like the EAFE will retest that trendline (or its late 2011 low). That will a very important test, and hopefully will produce an oversold bounce of some type. Chartwatchers know, however, that the overall shape of the potential topping pattern since the start of 2010 calls for a lot more caution. The same is true of Emerging Market iShares in Chart 2. If those the late 2011 lows are broken, that would be a very bearish sign for global stocks. Given the tight correlation among global stocks, any breakdowns in foreign stocks would have a negative impact on U.S. stocks as well.

It looks like traders and investors took the "sell in May" mantra seriously this week. Stocks fell sharply after Friday morning's weak April jobs report was released. The worst performance came in the Power Shares QQQ Trust which led the rest of the market lower. Chart 1 shows the QQQ tumbling 2.5% on Friday on huge trading volume. That's a bad combination. In addition, the QQQ fell well below its 50-day moving average (blue line) and negated the "island reversal" that formed the previous week (see top circle). That puts the April low in jeopardy. A close below that low would initiate a pattern of "lower highs and lower lows" which is symptomatic of a deeper correction. The next level of potential support would then be the early March low near 63. The QQQ/SPX relative strength ratio (below Chart 1) also shows the QQQ underperforming the S&P 500 over the last month. That shows loss of leaderhip by the technology sector which is another negative development. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 falling back below its 50-day line after failing a test of its April high. It too fell below its 50-day line. A test of its April low now appears likely. From a sector standpoint, technology was the week's worst sector. Energy and materials were close behind and were weighed down by falling commodity prices. The three top sectors -- utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare -- are all defensive sectors. That type of defensive rotation is consistent with market weakness. Bonds rallied as stocks fell, while gold attracted some safe haven buying. The dollar bounced a bit on Friday as the Euro weakened.

One of the ways to measure the mood of the stock market is to see what sector rotations are taking place beneath the surface. Chart 1 shows that sector rotations over the past month reflect a market mood that is turning more defensive. The four sector lines are plotted "relative" to the S&P 500 which is the flat black line. In other words, the four sector lines are relative strength ratios that measure their performance "relative" to the S&P 500. The blue line shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) leading the market higher since the beginning of the year. Technology leadership is a good thing for the market. The XLK:SPX ratio has started to drop during April, however, which shows short-term loss of that leadership. In fact, technology was this week's weakest sector. The other three lines show the relative performance of the three defensive sectors which are consumer staples (pink line), healthcare (green line), and utilities (red line). Those three sectors underperformed the S&P 500 since December as the market rallied. Notice, however, that those three relative strength ratios have turned up over the last month. In fact, utilities, healthcare, and staples were this week's three strongest sectors. That's normally a sign that investors are turning more defensive and are protecting themselves from a possible market correction.