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StockCharts Blogs - Don't Ignore This Chart! |
The Gold SPDR (GLD) gave back last week’s gain with a sharp decline the last three days and is on the verge of breaking support. The next support zone resides in the 135-138 area. Gold remains hostage to the falling Euro as the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) fell to its lowest level since summer 2010.
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A review of the CandleGlance charts for the thirty Dow stocks shows only five components trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages: AT&T, Disney, Pfizer, Wal-mart and Verizon. Four of these five can be considered defensive stocks that hold up well during times of uncertainty.
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Apple suffered its biggest six week decline since 2008, but signs of firmness emerged as the stock formed a spinning top at the end of last week. Spinning tops represent indecision that can sometimes foreshadow a reversal. Also note that this candlestick formed with high volume. A move above Thursday’s high would complete a short-term reversal. It would take a move above 580 to forge a medium-term reversal.
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The 30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX) broke down with a sharp decline the last few weeks. This puts the yield near its 2011 lows and within striking distance of its 2008 lows, scene of the last crisis and flight to safety. Notice that treasury yields and the S&P 500 are positively correlated because the 26-week Correlation Coefficient has mostly positive the last five years.
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The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) have been negatively this month. Notice how TLT advanced from 116 to 123.5 and GLD declined from 161 to 150 the prior 11 days. This negative correlation changed today as both surged higher. TLT is up over 1% and GLD is up over 2%. Gold may be regaining its safe haven status.
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May has been nothing but mayhem for the market as all nine sectors moved lower. The PerfChart below shows the percentage change since May 1st. Over the last 11 trading days, the Finance SPDR (XLF), Energy SPDR (XLE) and Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) are leading the market lower. The three defensive sectors (XLU, XLP, XLV) are holding up the best.
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After a big decline in April, Google ($GOOG) consolidated the last few weeks and the Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly. This could be called a Bollinger Band squeeze or volatility squeeze. The next directional signal depends on the band break. A move above the upper band would be bullish, while a move below the lower band would be bearish.
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Stocks were under pressure the last three days, but ATVI bucked the trend with an advance and gap on high volume. This gap off support is bullish as long as it holds. Resistance at 13 marks the next challenge.
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The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) remains one of the strongest sectors and Heinze is part of that strength with an ascending triangle breakout. With a surge the last two weeks, the stock broke above its January-February highs and entered uncharted territory. Relative strength in consumer staples stocks shows a preference for defense.
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The PerfChart below shows the percentage change for seven intermarket ETFs. The three risk assets (stocks, oil, euro) are down, while the three safe havens are up (dollar, treasuries). Gold is going against the Dollar and along with the stock market.
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