April 2009 Archived Entries

April 16, 2009

Quadrupal Top Breakout Now Faltering (CPSI)

By Chip Anderson
P&F
Ditc20090416-1
Click here for a live version of this chart


CPSI has had a pretty impressive P&F chart for a while now.  On March 16th, it completed a Quadrupal Top Breakout pattern that is, technically, still in place today.  The problem is that CPSI is dangerously close to reversing right now with the potential to fall back below that huge support/resistance level at 29-30.

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April 09, 2009

Ticker Cloud leads to SDS Head and Shoulders

By Chip Anderson
Chart Pattern
Ditc20090409 Click here for a live version of this chart


SDS is the ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 ETF.  It's a way to invest (gamble really) that the market is going to fall.  It showed up today on our Ticker Cloud page as one of today's most popular charts.  A close look at the chart shows why.

Prior to September of last year, SDS was in a pretty nice uptrend (something that's bad for the overall market obviously).  Then, as we know, the markets went nuts and so did SDS.  Since January however, the markets have gotten better organized with fewer huge jumps - just like SDS.

What's interesting is that if you mentally remove what I'm calling the "Land of Strange Behavior" from the chart, you are left with a pretty classic Head and Shoulders top pattern - the uptrend from last summer, followed by the left shoulder in January, the head in early March and the possible right shoulder at the start of April.

Today's gap down hints at a possible break below the neckline.

Obviously, selectively ignoring parts of a chart is "cheating" when it comes to pure technical analysis.  But with this chart, I'm more interested in the psychology of the bears and right now, what this chart is saying is that the bears are nervous.

Regardless, SDS will be very interesting to watch over the next couple of hours/days.  And be sure to check out the cloud from time to time to see what others are charting.

April 07, 2009

Getting Beat Down Legally (PPD)

By Chip Anderson
Moving Averages
Ditc20090407
Click here for a live version of this chart


Help!  Police!  Pre-Paid Legal Services (PPD) is getting beat down by its 50-day Moving Average! Again!

This is the third time this year that PPD has failed to penetrate the 50-day MA (blue line).  Things were looking promising too - this stock showed up on a Bullish MACD scan yesterday (see the MACD Histogram going positive?) after a strong up day with good volume.  Still, this chart deserves to be watched closely as increased volume may lead (eventually) to a strong upside breakout.

April 03, 2009

Intraday Up/Down Volume Sentiment Chart

By Chip Anderson
Market Sentiment
Ditc20090403
Click here for a live version of this chart.

"Wow.  That doesn't look like any financial chart I've ever seen before."

I agree, that is one strange looking chart.  What the green area shows is the total amount of "Up" volume - i.e. the total volume of all stock that are currently higher than their previous close - the "Advancers' volume."  Similarly, the red area shows the "Decliners' volume."  Both numbers reset to zero at the start of each day which is why they usually make the kind of triangular shape you see above.

By plotting $NAUPV in "area" mode and underlaying $NADNV on the same chart, we can see at a glance whether today is an "up" day or a "down" day at a glance.

(Note: There is a subtle danger however - $NAUPV and $NADNV are plotted on different scales.  See how the red and blue Horizontal Lines at 900 don't match because of the scale differences?  In general, that's not a big deal, but it could be a problem if you are comparing the magnitudes of the red and green areas directly.)

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