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The major index market carpet shows the Dow Transports underperforming with its components showing more down days than up days in February. Since 31-Jan, the Trannies show -2 for net up days-down days for all components. This indicator counts the number of days each stock moves higher and then subtracts the number of days each moves lower during the specified time span. It is a breadth type indicator that measures the degree of participation.


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The CRB Index ($CRB) and the 10-year Treasury Note ($UST) usually move in opposite directions. However, as the John Murphy's Intermarket PerfChart shows, this has not been the case the last six days. Even though the CRB Index is up over 2% since 17-Feb, the 10-year Treasury Note is up around a half percent. Some needs to give here because rising commodity prices could spark inflationary fears, which would be bearish for treasuries.  


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The rally in the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) has been rather sharp, but the ETF has still only recovered half the prior loss. Notice how FXE declined from 142 to 126 (16 points) and then advanced to 134 (8 points). Like the October surge, this advance could be just a corrective rally in a bigger downtrend.


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The chart below shows weekly Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks, which combine price action from two weeks to form a composite candlestick. As of this week, SPY formed nine white (hollow) Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks in a row and shows no weakness. The first long black candlestick would suggest that a corrective period is starting. You can read more on Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks in our ChartSchool.


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Boeing (BA) moved into a tight range the last 5-6 weeks and the Bollinger Bands contracted to their narrowest in over six months. This signals a volatility contraction, which in turn could foreshadow a volatility expansion. Watch resistance from the February highs and support from the February low for the next directional signal.


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The PerfChart below shows the performance for ten currencies since January (year-to-date). The traditional safe-haven currencies are down (Dollar and Yen), while two emerging market currencies are up (Real and Peso). The Euro is also up, which reflects the current risk-on environment for the stock market.


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The Retail SPDR (XRT) hit a new high with a gap last week, but failed to hold this gap as a bearish engulfing pattern formed on Tuesday. Volume also perked up to its highest level in four days. After a rally from 52 to 59, the ETF could correct back to broken resistance in the 53.5 area.

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The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) opened weak with a print below 53, but then recovered with a high volume rally and close near 55. Overall, Thursday’s long white candlestick engulfed the prior four candlesticks. At the very least, this establishes support with Thursday’s low. Follow through would confirm the pattern and argue for a move above the early February high.


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Apple is no doubt in a strong uptrend, but the recent move went parabolic as the trendline slope steepened for the third time. The latest surge from 420 to 520 was pretty much straight up. With a high-volume bearish engulfing pattern taking shape on Wednesday, the stock could be ripe for a correction or consolidation.


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After a sharp move lower from late November to early February, the S&P 500 VIX ETN (VXX) bounced the last seven days with its biggest move since November. Volume also surged. It appears that traders are taking out a little insurance with the stock market so overbought.

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