May 14, 2013 at 11:40 AM | written by Arthur Hill
The overall trend for the CRB Index ($CRB) is down this year, but the index bounced back above 288 this month. It looks like a strong jobs report and rebound in commodities was more than Treasuries could take as the 30-Year US Treasury ($USB) fell over 4% this month. Notice that $USB is negatively correlated with $CRB.
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May 10, 2013 at 6:36 AM | written by Arthur Hill
The S&P 500 %Above 200-day SMA ($SPXA200R) is a breadth indicator that measures the degree of participation. The S&P 500 is trading near a 52-week high and over 90% of its components are above their 200-day moving average. This shows a high degree of participation and the indicator is at its highest level since May 2011. At this point, the indicator is at an extreme and still bullish. A break back below 80% would provide the first sign of material weakening.
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May 03, 2013 at 11:23 AM | written by Arthur Hill
The Nasdaq underperformed the NY Composite ($NYA) from September to January as the $COMPQ:$NYA ratio plunged for five months (yellow area). The ratio stabilized over the last few months, but the Nasdaq did not start outperforming until this week when the ratio broke above its January high. The Nasdaq is now leading the NY Composite this year.
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April 18, 2013 at 7:36 AM | written by Arthur Hill
The
Hindenburg Omen triggered on Monday as the percentage of new lows and new highs on the NYSE moved above 2.8%. There is some debate on this threshold because I have seen 2.2% and 2.4% used by other analysts. Using these lower thresholds, the omen triggered again on Wednesday. Even though this is a bearish signal, don’t forget that the August 2010 signal did not pan out.
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April 06, 2013 at 3:03 PM | written by Arthur Hill
The PerfChart below shows five ETFs representing the inter-market picture. Even though the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the US Oil Fund (USO) are up over the past month. notice that the 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) is up a lot more. Treasuries are showing relative strength and this is a potential negative for the stock market.
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April 02, 2013 at 6:44 AM | written by Arthur Hill
The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) remains in an uptrend overall, but the indicator hit resistance near the February high and turned lower the last few weeks. A break below the 50-day moving average would be negative and a break below the support low would turn this Nasdaq breadth indicator bearish.
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March 25, 2013 at 4:04 PM | written by Arthur Hill
The noose is tightening as indecision reigns supreme for Netflix. After more than doubling, the stock moved into a tight range the last two months. Notice that BandWidth is below 7% as the Bollinger Bands narrow. The range break will deliver the next signal. An upside breakout at 195 would be bullish, while a downside break at 175 bearish.
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February 09, 2013 at 7:45 PM | written by Arthur Hill
The NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI) has been rising since the latter part of November and recently exceeded its September high. The trend here is clearly up with the November trend line marking first support. Even though the summation index flattened over the past week, it has yet to break this trend line and reverse the medium-term uptrend. You can read more on the
McClellan Summation Index in our ChartSchool.
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February 04, 2013 at 12:26 PM | written by Arthur Hill
Some fears in Spain and Italy triggered a move away from risk as the US Dollar Fund (UUP) and the 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) surged on Monday. Even though the Dollar is up sharply, also note that the Gold SPDR (GLD) is up and gold is attracting money.
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February 01, 2013 at 7:07 AM | written by Arthur Hill
The markets are clearly in the mood to embrace risk. The S&P 500 and Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) are up over 10% since mid November, and the Euro Index ($XEU) is up over 6%. In contrast, the 30-Year US Treasury ($USB) and the US Dollar Index ($USD) are down. Spot Gold ($GOLD) is the odd asset because it is down along with the Dollar.
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