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Gold Miners ETF Hits Critical Juncture near Two Key Moving Averages

After breaking the 200-day and 50-day moving averages with a sharp decline, the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) consolidated with a small pennant. Notice that this consolidation is occurring near the 62% retracement and early February lows. This puts GDX at a critical juncture. A break below support would signal a continuation lower and target a move to the December lows. A break back above the two moving averages would be quite positive and revive the uptrend.

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20+ YR T-Bond ETF Bounces off 200-day Moving Average

Treasuries caught a bid as the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) surged almost 1% and the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) fell back to 2.7%. Both are above their 200-day moving averages, but TLT is bouncing off the 200-day and $TNX falling towards the 200-day. Put another way, TLT successfully tested this key average and $TNX is poised to break it.

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Amazon Starts Acting like a Retail Stock (video)

Amazon (AMZN), the biggest internet retailer in the world, was immune to weakness in the retail group for most of January, but finally broke down with a break away gap. After an oversold bounce above 360, the stock is continuing lower today with a move below 350. The rising 200-day moving average and broken resistance levels mark the next major support zone around 310-320.

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LinkedIn Tests Key Moving Average with Bullish Candlestick Pattern

It has been a rough few months for LinkedIn as the stock fell from the 255 area in September to the 200 area in early December. The stock, however, is finding some support near the rising 200-day moving average with a big bullish engulfing. After a pullback in mid January, LinkedIn is again trying to hold this key moving average with a surge the last three days. The indicator window shows the MACD Histogram turning positive on Monday. Earnings are scheduled for February 6th.

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Two Key Moving Averages Define the Trend for the Coal ETF

The Coal ETF (KOL) got a summer bounce, but stalled in the autumn and then hit resistance from the falling 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average joined the battle as it met the 200-day at the end of December. With a sharp downturn the last three days, KOL appears to be resuming its long-term downtrend and heading for a test of the summer lows. The indicator window shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) plunging back to its lows as KOL underperforms the rest of the market.

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Utilities SPDR Battles Key Moving Average

The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is battling the rising 200-day moving average for the third time in five months. Since surging above 38 in mid September, the ETF pulled back with a falling wedge. Buyers stepped in near the 200-day as the ETF moved above the wedge trend line early Tuesday. Let’s see if MACD can confirm with a signal line crossover. 

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Steel ETF Challenges 200-day Moving Average

The Steel ETF (SLX) is making some noise with a break above the flag trend line and challenge to the 200-day SMA. This moving average flattened just below resistance, which extends back to the May highs. With the 50-day turning up, price action is looking bullish and a flag breakout projects a move above the resistance zone.

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S&P 500 ETF Recaptures the 50-day

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke below its 50-day moving average on Monday, but moved right back above on Tuesday. This moving average held from December to early June. SPY broke below in late June, but quickly recovered and recaptured the moving average. It looks like another battle is taking shape as SPY bounces at this key average for the fourth time since December.

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Telecom iShares Gets Caught in a Moving Average Sandwich

The Telecom iShares (IYZ) is finding support from the rising 200-day moving average and hitting resistance at the 50-day moving average. A move above the March highs would break the 50-day and keep the longer term uptrend alive. Notice that MACD is improving as it inches into positive territory.

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Dow Tests Key Moving Average as MACD Rolls Over

The Dow has fallen over 300 points in the last six trading days and is now testing the 200-day moving average. The senior Average broke above this key average in early December and needs to hold the breakout. A break back below 13000 would be quite negative.  MACD is already signaling a turn in momentum as the oscillator moved below its signal line today.

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Consumer Staples SPDR Bounces off 200-day SMA

Stocks found a bid on Monday as the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) continued its bounce off the rising 200-day moving average. Notice that XLP hit this moving average on Wednesday, firmed on Thursday and bounced on Friday. Today’s follow through confirms support in the 34 area.

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Nasdaq Remains Below 200-day Moving Average

The Nasdaq broke below the 200-day moving average with a gap down last week, and remains below this key level. This moving average and the small consolidation now turn into first resistance. Notice that RSI is almost at oversold levels (below 30).

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Nasdaq Tests 200-day Moving Average

With a sharp decline the last five weeks, the Nasdaq is poised to test its rising 200-day moving average. The red line is the 200-day and this key average was last tested in early June. Note that the index is underperforming the S&P 500 as the price relative moved below its early August low.

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Russell 2000 Tests 50-day SMA

The Russell 2000 ($RUT) is leading the market lower and closing in on its rising 50-day simple moving average. Broken resistance from the May-August highs also marks potential support in the 820-830 area. Small-caps ($RUT) are leading the market lower since mid September.

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Apple Forms Doji at 50-day SMA

After hitting a new high above 700 in mid September, Apple (AAPL) gapped down and declined to around 660. Three items mark support in this area. The early September low, the 38.2% retracement and the rising 50-day moving average. With a doji signaling indecision and the Stochastic Oscillator turning oversold, Apple could be ripe for a bounce.  

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Semiconductor ETF Tests Two Key Moving Averages SMH

After a big surge above 33, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) peaked in mid August and declined back to support in the 32.50 area. Support here stems form broken resistance, the rising 200-day SMA and the rising 50-day SMA. A successful test and break above 33 would be bullish. Failure to bounce and a break below 32 would be bearish.

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CRB Index Breaks above 200-day Day SMA

The CRB Index ($CRB) is breaking above its 200-day moving average after two failed attempts. Since first breaking below the 200-day in August 2011, this level marked resistance in early September and late February. With this week’s move above 305, the index broke the 200-day and exceeded the April 2011 trend line.

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TSX Composite Breaks 200-day SMA

The TSX Composite ($TSX) is a little late to the party, but the index found some gas this week and surged above its 200-day moving average for the first time since early May. The index also broke the March trend line and exceeded its early July high.

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AT&T, Disney, Pfizer, Wal-mart and Verizon Show Relative Strength within the Dow

A review of the CandleGlance charts for the thirty Dow stocks shows only five components trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages: AT&T, Disney, Pfizer, Wal-mart and Verizon. Four of these five can be considered defensive stocks that hold up well during times of uncertainty.

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Nordstrom Shows Relative Weakness as Bollinger Bands Narrow

The stock market rallied in January, but Nordstrom (JWN) traded flat and shows relative weakness. Even though the stock has yet to break down, volatility is narrowing as the Bollinger Bands contract. Notice that Bollinger Band width is at its lowest in over six months. Watch the range for the next direction clue.

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A Golden Cross for the Dow Industrials

The technical picture for Dow is improving as the 50-day simple moving average crossed above the 200-day simple moving average. Note that the 50-day SMA has not been above the 200-day SMA since August. Also notice that the senior average is trading at its highest level since late July.

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Santa Delivers the 200-day for the S&P 500

The Santa Clause rally continued into Friday with the S&P 500 clearing its 200-day moving average in the early afternoon. Prior attempts in early December failed as the index fell back before the close. Let’s see if Santa can make good on this one. Merry Christmas!

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12 month Slope Indicator remains Positive for S&P 500

Taking a big step back to look at the big picture, the 12-month Slope indicator for the S&P 500 turned positive in September 2009 and remains positive. While this indicator does not pick exact tops or bottoms, it gives us a good idea of the long-term trend. Note the green and red arrows showing positive and negative crossovers.

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F5 Networks Gets Sandwiched Between Two Key Moving Averages

F5 Networks (FFIV) first broke below its 50-day SMA in January and then its 200-day moving average in March. The stock recovered with a break back above the 50-day in May, but has yet to reclaim the 200-day. The next moving average to break could hold the key to the next significant move.

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Dow bounces near key retracement

With the close at 10040 on Tuesday, the Dow retraced around 61.8% of its prior advance (Jul-Aug). This Fibonacci retracement sometimes marks a reversal zone. The Dow managed to recover after dip below 10000 on Friday and close above 10100. Resistance might not be far off through. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are a few hundred points above current levels.

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