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StockCharts Blogs - Don't Ignore This Chart! |
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) was relatively weak in January as it failed to partake in the broad market advance. More recently, the ETF surged in late January and again on Tuesday with moves that reinforce support in the 34-34.5 area. MACD flattened over the last two weeks and a move into positive territory would turn momentum bullish again.
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Despite all the “issues” surrounding Europe, the German DAX Index ($DAX) is going strong and outperforming the S&P 500. In fact, the DAX is outperforming the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) and the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) as well. The chart below shows that the DAX is up a whopping 14.76% year-to-date, mre than double the gain in the S&P 500.
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Stocks were largely higher on Wednesday with the technology sector leading the way. As the Sector Market Carpet shows, three of the top five performers in the technology sector come semiconductor group: Linear Tech (LLTC), Altera (ALTR) and Texas Instruments (TXN).
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10-day RSI for SPY moved below 30 for the fourth time in 2011. I lowered the look-back period from 14 to 10 to increase sensitivity. RSI became oversold in March, June and now August. Oversold does not guarantee a bounce, but it does increase the odds of at least a dead-cat bounce.
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Even though Lockheed Martin (LMT) edged higher the last few weeks, both Aroon Up (green) and Aroon (down) moved lower. Also notice that they are parallel and relatively close together. This affirms the consolidation in LMT. The first indicator to move above 50 will trigger the next signal. You can read more on Aroon in our ChartSchool article.
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After becoming oversold last week, the DB Commodity Index Fund ($DBC) bounced off support with a long white candlestick. Notice that an inverted hammer formed on Friday as RSI dipped below 30 (oversold). Broken support turns into the first resistance area around 30.50.
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Unsurprisingly, the ProShares Short Dow 30 Fund (DOG) moved lower as the market trended higher from September to February. As with November, the ETF is making another reversal attempt as it broke the late August trendline and Aroon(Up) surged above 90. This positive develop remains in force as long as Aroon(Down) remains below 70 and below Aroon(up). Click here too see our predefined Aroon Oscillator scan or our ChartSchool article.
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The Russell 2000 ($RUT) and small-caps are leading the market higher. The index is the first of the major indices to break above its November high. With today’s move above 740, the index is also challenging its April high. Notice that CCI turned positive with the 18-Nov gap and momentum remains bullish.
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With a sharp decline the last eight days, the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) filled the early November gap and broke the channel trendline. Also notice that the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) moved to its lowest level since September 1st. The combination indicates a corrective period unfolding.
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With a strong open Thursday morning and a sharp move lower in the afternoon, the Russell 2000 ETF has a bearish engulfing pattern working on the day. The bulls started in control, but the bears clearly took control in the afternoon. Also notice that the MACD-Histogram turned negative three days ago, indicating that MACD moved below its signal line.
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