4151 - final push higher ? how much more to go?

Michael Groom Rank: 100 Followers: 4 Votes: 6 Years Member: 4 Last Update: 17 June 2017, 6:36 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
Swing Trading
Cycle Analysis

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PAGE - 9 ----> INTRA-DAY...
PAGE - 2 ----> DOW ...
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Please review PAGE 10 (Last) for usage

1) for up/down trends, the cycle lines must be in the correct form/order
2) use other TA tools to confirm trend change, price targets and probability of success
3) multiple timeframe trend confirmation

1) to enable as accurate as possible high probability realtime analysis
2) to get as close as possible to the major and minor turns
3) to construct analysis based on sound known TA principles
4) to reduce the probability of individual trade failure and increase the probability of individual trade success

Tools Used
a) candlesticks
b) traditional pattern recognition
c) elliottwave
d) cycles (price and time)
e) intermarket relationships
f) specific indicator behaviour
g) trendlines, support and resistance

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010 Welcome to KnowledgePaysTheBestInterest.......

100 Summary

All markets are connected more so to the USD and US bond market. With the US at the centre and Non-US at the peripheral in 2 levels, Developed and Emerging Markets.
As the USB approaches the end of it 34+ bull run with historical 5000 year lows in rates. We have yet to feel the impact of the climax and reversal of this process. Which may help drive capital into US equity away from bonds.

World aggregate demand is shrinking, Currencies are being moved through negative interest rates. These policies will move capital to assets which have better returns and may be more risk.

It is the behaviour of the USD that will shape the behaviour of capital movements between domestic and international assets classes and industry sectors.
Analysing the relationships will guide the behaviour and movements.

141 $INDU - 15 min

16APR17-note he (a)(b)(c) correction, most likely a wave B but there are other variations to this, so a break and close above 20850 negates the C wave down
29MAR17-a likely 3 wave structure has formed, alt view is this is w2 of 5 wave down. next few days to confirm wave structure.

142 - Dow $INDU - Weekly

16APR17-w4 still underway and may move significantly lower in the near term... review of the wave structure is required to confirm the position
29MAR17-w4 correction under way. Likely wA structure is 3w and to be shallow, 38% watch for confirmation. Moves will be large in points, volatility to increase.

151 $USD - Monthly

I know from experience that nobody can give me a tip or a series of tips that will make more money for me than my own judgement.
Jesse Livermore

16APR17-it is not clear if a w5of5of3 is complete... due to the structure is showing evidence that a w4of5of3 is in progress, so a decline below 97.8 would indicate a completion, a close above 103.5 would indicate higher w5 peak
21MAR17- cycle indicators still strongly +ve however significant divergences have formed.. probability in wC of 4.. there are other alternatives counts wA down. Caution is warranted as the top is near or has occurred.

152 $USD - Weekly

'To be a good trader, you need to trade with your eyes open, recognize real trends and turns, and not waste time or energy on regrets and wishful thinking.'
Alexander Elder

16APR17-from the mthly chart it shows a w5of5of3 may not be complete... from the weekly chart evidence shows the correction may be complete as a w4, cycles in a neutral position awaiting a move
21MAR17-cycle indicators are in a down trend +ve but weakening, probability in wC of 4 is high... divergences are clearly forming

153 $USD - Daily

I know from experience that nobody can give me a tip or a series of tips that will make more money for me than my own judgement.
Jesse Livermore

16APR17-the daily chart shows the correction and a possible w1of 5 is complete.... a bullish view is negated if price closes below 98.5... if closes above 102 then probability that a move to 105 ish is underway
21MAR17-wave formation appears corrective... all cycle indicators are -ve but starting to turn up...note caution as both higher timeframes trend are down...

180 $UST10Y-$UST2Y - Monthly


184 US Yield Curve

28-OCT - all rates moved up across the curve...trend still down... 10-2 yr spread widening....
13-SEP - long rates moving higher faster than short rates
02-APR - money moving into bonds, 2/10yr spread narrowing
19-FEB - shows yield curve is flattening, indicating global recession approaching

189 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF

- PAGE 1 : US dollar and Market Charts
- PAGE 2 : equity indexes selected US
- PAGE 3 : equity indexes selected non US
- PAGE 4 : currencies selected major
- PAGE 5 : currencies selected major
- PAGE 6 : commodities selected
- PAGE 9 : Intra-Day charts
- PAGE 10 : how to read these charts

21MAR17-cycle indicators are -ve but trending higher in what appears to be a corrective wave

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