1 - Options Trades as Long Term Investments

Martin Mansour Rank: 43 Followers: 18 Votes: 2 Years Member: 12 Last Update: 27 June 2017, 21:32 Categories: Trade Reporting
Market Breadth Analysis

Multi-Part Options Trades. My personal positions & investments.
Get a Price Discount & Reduce Risk -- by combining options and selling some premium.
Options Income Trades - Short Strangles on SPX (/ES futures) when volatility spikes; Lately have been selling premium in the Bond Futures (ZB), Gold (GC) & Oil (CL) because they're less correlated to stocks.
Market Breadth: McClellan Oscillator, Summation Index; $VIX , Put-Call Ratio, Advance-Decline, $TICK, $TRIN.
** FUTURES -- selling premium (short options for income) in Bonds ZB: and Crude Oil CL; some tail-risk hedges are in place.
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*** 5/29: Added some new Advance/Decline charts (on page 1). Market Breadth is strong, but many stocks are going parabolic. It feels like 1999 a little bit in some Nasdaq stocks.
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**Recent Trades:
Tues May 9th: Did a pairs trade: long IWM (517 sh), short SPY (300 sh) @ net credit $305. Exit @ limit $500 net credit.
6/15: CL (Crude Oil): sold Aug 43Put & Sep 42Put
6/14: SHOP: Sold January 80P-100C (strangle)

Less

! * ..VIX - w/ SPX, VXX & XIV

May 16th: overnight the VIX is up; SPX futures are down; BONDS are up. Hedging a little bit.

April 24th: closed my portfolio hedges overnight. Big VIX crush and trendline break.

*** Caution Ahead: April 10, 2017 -- The Volatility Futures have gone inverted ( 'backwardation'). April VIX is trading higher than May VIX futures & the spread is increasing.
VVIX (30-day implied volatility of options on VIX futures) is almost 100% (and going higher); nearer term VIX I.V. is well over 100%.
** The big boys are definitely positioning for risk ahead: They're buying lots of SPX puts, VIX futures and VIX options. ***

! * .VIX - 2 Hour

! * .VXN - 2 Hour (Nasdaq VIX)

2 Hour chart of the Nasdaq's VIX. Implied Volatility of 30 DAY options on the $NDX

! * UVXY - 2 hour Candlesticks, 1024

! *$SPX - 1 hour, Correlations: Stocks, Bonds, Yen, Dollar, Gold, Oil. Elder Impulse

2016-2017: Selling Option Premium in Futures: Gold (/GC); Bonds (/ZB); Crude Oil (/CL); S&P's (/ES).
Selling Strangles, Puts & Calls -- Managing the Risk with Delta Hedging.

April12, 2017 - Volatility has been spiking recently. Safe-haven assets; Gold, Bonds, Yen are rallying.

! *$SPX - 10 minute - correlations

! *$VVIX - Daily; 'VIX of the VIX' -- implied volatility of VIX Options

$VIX measures the implied volatility of options on the SPX index

$VVIX (this chart) measures the implied volatility of options on the VIX index - (these are priced off /VX futures).
When this is high people are buying protection with VIX options.

11/18: When Volatility is LOW, I'm buying SPX Calendar Spreads (Delta .40, short 30 day/long 60 day)
exit @ +10%.

! - $ ..NYAD - NYSE Advance-Decline line - Weekly Cumulative, 1024

Breadth is strong.
Watch the 80-line (on the Stocastics 60 period) for the next sell signal. This is a very good signal.

! - $ .NYAD - Nasdaq Advance-Decline line - Weekly Cumulative

! - $ .NYAD - NYSE Advance-Decline Line 'Slo Sto 60' signal; McClellan Oscillator

**Slow Stocastic, 60 period: this is a great signal for when to lower risk or add risk in a portfolio. **
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4/1/17: Market Breadth is still strongly positive. Holding Longs

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