1Q 2017 - STRAZZA STRATEGY (Trades Tracked & Posted)

Steven Strazza Rank: 116 Followers: 4 Votes: 1 Years Member: 0 Last Update: 24 June 2017, 18:20 Categories: Chart Patterns
Trend Analysis
Language: English

Welcome to Steven C. Strazza's Intermediate Term Swing Trading 'Fauxfolio.' Using Technical Analysis I will identify Bullish Chart Patterns and create Trading Plans around them which I will post in this forum. Follow me @sstrazza on Twitter where I tweet about all of my portfolio moves and positions.

PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION: The portfolio will consist of no more than 5 positions at a time. Positions are equal weighted (~$1,000/each). I have designed 5 separate position categories which will act as guidelines for the holdings. I have done this in an effort to achieve as diversified of a portfolio as possible with only 5 holdings. 1). 'Dow Strategy' - Any current or former Dow component; 2). 'Sector Strategy' - Any US-focused Sector or Industry ETF; 3). 'International Strategy' - Any non-domesic / foreign country or region ETF; 4). 'Three C's Strategy' - Any commodity, credit, or currency-focused ETF (Exception: can include certain individual stocks that have a pronounced and consistent correlation to an underlying commodity); 5). 'Stock-Picker Strategy' - Any damn stock I want. One rule. MUST be an individual company's common stock, not an ETF, ETN, or any other fund. And there are only two last rules... A). Every effort must be made to maintain a full portfolio of 5 positions at all times. This means closed positions must be replaced in a timely manner (up to 5 business days). And B). 1 out of the 5 positions must be held as a short bet. This can be accomplished using either an express short position or an inverse ETF or ETN.

PORTFOLIO & RISK MANAGEMENT: All buy and sell decisions will be made based on TECHNICAL Analysis. But... positions MUST also meet basic fundamental requirements. This evaluation is up to my sole discretion and will focus on things such as debt levels, and liquidity. Negative EPS alone will never disqualify a position from the portfolio as this is meant to be based on chart patterns above all else.

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$_TREASURY YIELD OVERLAY STUDY (TWEET V.)_4.6

$06_TLT_MASTER TREASURY BOND & YIELD STUDY (LARGE V)_6.2_$

*_NVDA_SPECIAL ROC BUY SIGNAL STUDY_3.23

*_SPY_Four Major Risk-On Relative Ratio Analysis_*

*_UUP / TNX / XLF / TLT 3 Window Chart (Big Screen)_4.11

*1. GDX_IS GOLD A BUY? GOLD MINERS VS GOLD VS DOLLAR BUY / SELL SIGNAL STUDY_3.27

*1. GDX_IS GOLD A BUY? YUP! GOLD MINERS VS GOLD VS DOLLAR BUY / SELL SIGNAL STUDY_4.7

*XOM_DOW STRATEGY_1-Hr Chart_Bullish Triangle Setup_3.23

1* MIME_2 hr Chart View w/ Triangle Pattern (for Mental Stop)_3.25

MIME came very close to being stopped out just 3 days after opening the position. After closing below the 20-day EMA on 3/22, it easily recaptured the moving average the following day. We use mental stops for this reason. By not having a paper stop or an actual 'good-til-cancel' limit order placed at the 20-day EMA, you are able to wait a day and make sure the stop-out is confirmed. This helps to avoid being shaken out of a position. MIME and the 20-day EMA mental stop on 3/22 & 3/23 is a perfect example. We are still in the position and things are looking up with price closing near highs today and above yesterday's high. I am removing the 20-day mental stop & replacing it with a pattern violation stop, which would trigger below the solid green line in the chart above. Ultimately, the stop is triggered if the triangle pattern resolves to the downside (close below trend) & is confirmed on the next day (if it does not recapture and close above that same trend).

1*MIME MARKED UP FOR PAPER BUY_3.20

MIME came very close to being stopped out just 3 days after opening the position. After closing below the 20-day EMA on 3/22, it easily recaptured the moving average the following day. We use mental stops for this reason. By not having a paper stop or an actual 'good-til-cancel' limit order placed at the 20-day EMA, you are able to wait a day and make sure the stop-out is confirmed. This helps to avoid being shaken out of a position. MIME and the 20-day EMA mental stop on 3/22 & 3/23 is a perfect example. We are still in the position and things are looking up with price closing near highs today and above yesterday's high.

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