Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 FollowersHas Been a Top Public ChartList for Over 3 Months Rank: 6 Followers: 308 Votes: 176 Years Member: 11 Last Update: 24 April 2017, 18:45 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

24Apr17 - Nice rally following French election; bodes well going forward; Updated Charts 4000 to 4999 (Metals, Energy, CEFs, and Bonds)

21Apr17 - Up one day, down the next. Consistent not a term used to describe this market! Energy sector is tanking!

20Apr17 - Earnings helping to raise prices; Updated Charts 1000 to 1999 (United States ETFs)

18Apr17 - Bearish signs are on the rise; Updated Charts 2000 to 2999 (International ETFs)

17Apr17 - Updated Charts 4000 to 4999 (Metals, Energy, CEFs, and Bonds)

13Apr17 - More Red Arrows: Consolidation or on the cusp of a Correction? Updated Charts 1000 - 1999 (United States ETFs)

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Monthly (LONG TERM): 21Apr17 - Chart 0001: Monthly Trend Indicators are weaker

Weekly (MEDIUM TERM): 21Apr17 - Chart 0002: S&P 500 Weekly Chart shows lower Highs

Daily (SHORT TERM): 21Apr17 - Chart 0000.2: Summary of Market Strength Charts (0300 - 0440). Mostly Neutral: 3 Bullish, 8 Neutral, and 3 Bearish

Schedule: Monday: Update 4000 to 4999, Tuesday: Update 3000 to 3999, Wednesday: Update 2000 to 2999, Thursday: Update 1000 to 1999, Friday: Review Ratings, Saturday: Publish Summaries.

Less

0000.1 - SHORT TERM (Daily) Rating Summary - as of 20Apr17

0000.1 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary -

20Apr: Most ETFs are rated Neutral

(1) 39 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2)
(2) 59 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0)
(3) 41 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4)

13Apr: Most ETFs are rated Neutral or Bearish; few are rated Bullish

(1) 32 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2)
(2) 57 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0)
(3) 56 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4)

06Apr: ETF Ratings are mostly Neutral

(1) 42 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2)
(2) 72 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0)
(3) 25 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4)

30Mar: ETF Ratings are tilted more Bullish than Bearish

(1) 71 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2)
(2) 55 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0)
(3) 13 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4)

23Mar: Once again ETF Ratings are relatively equally distributed

(1) 55 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) 39 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) 45 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).



0000.2 - Market Strength Summary- Neutral: 3 Bullish, 8 Neutral, and 3 Bearish as of 21Apr17

0000.2 - Market Strength Chart Summary-

As of 21Apr17 - Mostly Neutral

(1) 3 charts are Bullish
(2) 8 charts are Neutral
(3) 3 charts are Bearish

As of 13Apr17 - Bearish

(1) 1 charts are Bullish
(2) 4 charts are Neutral
(3) 9 charts are Bearish

As of 07Apr17 - Neutral Bias

(1) 3 charts are Bullish
(2) 7 charts are Neutral
(3) 4 charts are Bearish

As of 31Mar17 - Bullish Bias

(1) 7 charts are Bullish
(2) 3 charts are Neutral
(3) 4 charts are Bearish

As of 24Mar17 - Strong Bearish Bias

(1) 1 chart is Bullish
(2) 2 charts are Neutral
(3) 11 charts are Bearish




0000.3 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement

0000.3 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement-

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Note: As a general rule, I personally invest only in ETFs that are (1) 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and (2) liquid (Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000).

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
0100 - 0190 Weekly Sector Charts (Page 3)
0200 - 0440 Market Strength Assessment (Page 4)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 21)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 47)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 47)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 47)

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0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) LONG TERM- Monthly Bullish Trend: Weaker- 21Apr17

0001 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?

21Apr17 - Monthly Trend Indicators are slightly less Bullish

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) remains Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) Neutral: Williams %R signal is Overbought but fading.
(4) Neutral: StochRSI signal is below Overbought and falling.
(5) Neutral: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is below Overbought

13Apr17 - Monthly Trend Indicators are slightly less Bullish

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) remains Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) Neutral: Williams %R signal is Overbought but fading.
(4) Neutral: StochRSI signal is below Overbought and falling.
(5) Neutral: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is below Overbought

07Apr17 - Monthly Trend Indicators continue Bullish

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) remains Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought.
(4) Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought.
(5) Neutral: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is below Overbought

31Mar17 - March was down but Indicators remain Bullish so Monthly Trend Continues Bullish

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) has crossed Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought.
(4) Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought.
(5) Neutral: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is slightly below Overbought

0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) MEDIUM TERM- RSI: Down- Turning Down 21Apr17

0002 - The MEDIUM TERM (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500-

21Apr17 - Weekly Chart shows series of lower Highs

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) is below Overbought and falling
(2) Bearish: MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX are close to or already Bearish
(3) Neutral: AROON remains flat signaling standoff between Buyers and Sellers
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic and ULT are falling from Overbought
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Neutral: ADX(14) and VTX(14) - signal possible end of Up Trend

13Apr17 - Weekly Chart mixed: Bears gaining ground

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) is below Overbought and falling
(2) Bearish: MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX are close to or already Bearish
(3) Neutral: AROON is flat signaling standoff between Buyers and Sellers
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic and ULT are falling from Overbought
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Neutral: ADX(14) and VTX(14) - signal possible end of Up Trend

07Apr17 - Weekly Trend looks Flat to Down

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) is below Overbought and fairly flat
(2) Neutral: Bullish but fading fast=> MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX
(3) Neutral: AROON is flat signaling standoff between Buyers and Sellers
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic and ULT are above 50 but falling
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Plus: ADX(14) and VTX(14 - signal an Up Trend

31Mar17 - This week was Up but Weekly Trend looks Flat to Down

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) is below Overbought and is dropping
(2) Neutral: Bullish but fading => MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX
(3) Neutral: AROON is Bullish but has leveled off
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic continues Overbought but it's falling
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Plus: ADX(14) is above 25 - signaling an Up Trend


0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- Bottoming- Neutral 21Apr17

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Daily- SHORT TERM (Daily)-

19Apr17- Daily Indicators signal slow drop in prices

(1) Minus: RSI(14) below 50 (Neutral Line)
(2) Neutral: Long Term Indicator Special K is Flat to Down
(3) Minus: MACD, PMO, TRIX all continue Bearish, however SLOPE suggests little price change
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastics below 50 but although Slow Stochastics are below 50 they are rising
(5) Minus: ROC is below 0, Chaikin Oscillator is just about 0 and flat
(6) Neutral: ULT and STO are both flat
(7) Neutral: The Medium Term Trend is Neutral (EMA 13 just barely over EMA 34) .
(8) Neutral: Vortex (VTX) suggests no Trend

13Apr17- Daily Indicators are Down

(1) Minus: RSI(14) below 50 (Neutral Line) and falling
(2) Neutral: Long Term Indicator Special K is Flat to Down
(3) Minus: MACD, PMO, TRIX continue Bearish, SLOPE says little price change
(4) Minus: Full Stochastics Flat and Slow Stochastics are below 50
(5) Minus: ROC is below 0 and falling; Chaikin Oscillator is just about 0 and fairly flat
(6) Minus: ULT and STO are both falling
(7) Neutral: The Medium Term Trend is Neutral (EMA 13 just barely over EMA 34) .
(8) Neutral: Vortex (VTX) suggests no Trend

07Apr17- Daily Indicators are Mixed

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) just about 50 (Neutral Line)
(2) Neutral: Long Term Indicator Special K is Flat
(3) Minus: MACD, PMO, TRIX continue Bearish but SLOPE says little price change
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastics Flat although Slow Stochastics have dropped below 50
(5) Neutral: ROC and Chaikin Oscillator are almost 0 and choppy
(6) Neutral: MFI Flat, ULT just under 0, but STO falling
(7) Neutral: The Medium Term Trend is Neutral (EMA 13 over EMA 34 but close and flat) .
(8) Neutral: Vortex (VTX) suggests no Trend

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- Indicators Suggest Slow Drift Lower- 21Apr17

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily -

21Apr17 - Indicators suggest market slowly drifting lower

(1) Minus: RSI EMA(20) has continued to drop
(2) Minus: MACD,TSI, and TRIX continue Bearish
(3) Neutral: SLOPE EMA(20) is flat and close to 0
(4) Neutral: ROC EMA(20) is flat and close to 0
(5) Neutral: MFI stayed below 50 but is fairly flat
(6) Minus: Slow Stochastic bounced from Oversold but remains below 50
(7) Neutral: ADX signals No Trend

13Apr17 - Indicators have turned mostly Bearish

(1) Minus: RSI EMA(20) continues to drop
(2) Minus: MACD,TSI, and TRIX continue Bearish
(3) Minus: SLOPE EMA(20) is flat but below 0
(4) Minus: ROC EMA(20) is flat but below 0
(5) Neutral: Money Flow Index is fairly flat but just below 50
(6) Minus: Slow Stochastic is below 50 (Neutral)
(7) Neutral: ADX signals No Trend

07Apr17 - Indicators mostly Neutral as market trading range narrows

(1) Minus: RSI EMA(20) continues to drop
(2) Minus: MACD,TSI, and TRIX continue Bearish
(3) Neutral: SLOPE EMA(20) is 0 and Flat
(4) Neutral: ROC EMA(20) is 0 and Flat
(5) Neutral: Money Flow Index is below 50 but has reversed
(6) Neutral: Slow Stochastic is below 20 (Oversold) but has reversed
(7) Neutral: ADX signals No Trend

31Mar17 - Under Lower Trend Line and Indicators Bearish

(1) Minus: RSI EMA(20) below Overbought and dropping
(2) Minus: MACD,TSI, and TRIX are Bearish
(3) Neutral: SLOPE EMA(20) is above 0 but falling
(4) Neutral: ROC EMA(20) is just above 0 but falling
(5) Minus: Money Flow Index is below 50 and nearing Oversold
(6) Minus: Slow Stochastic is below 20 (Oversold)
(7) Neutral: ADX signals that Bullish Trend is fading

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- Bottoming- Neutral 21Apr17

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day- SHORT TERM.

21Apr17- Most Indicators are Neutral

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) just below 50 and flat
(2) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram close to 0 and improving
(3) Minus: SLOPE is below 0
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic dropping but Slow Stochastics rising
(5) Neutral: ROC (Rate of Change) is almost 0 and flat
(6) Neutral: S&P 500 'EMA Medium Term Trend' barely Bullish: little distance between EMA(13) and EMA(34)
(7) Neutral: VTX and ADX signal no Trend

13Apr17- Most Indicators are Bearish

(1) Minus: RSI(14) below 50 and dropping
(2) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) is Bearish (below 0) and Histogram falling
(3) Minus: SLOPE is below 0 and falling
(4) Minus: Full Stochastic and Slow Stochastics are below 50
(5) Minus: ROC (Rate of Change) is below 0 and falling
(6) Neutral: S&P 500 'EMA Medium Term Trend' barely Bullish: little distance between EMA(13) and EMA(34)
(7) Neutral: VTX and ADX signal no Trend

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Rising Medium Term Trend: The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 13 Day (Green Line) is above the 34 Day (Red Line).

Signals: A Green Arrow is Bullish and a Red Arrow is Bearish.

MACD provides a fairly reliable indication of market direction. MACD crossovers generally signal when it is a good time to buy or sell.

CAUTION: MACD assumes that the market is trending. MACD is reliable when the market is in a Trend but can result in Whipsaws when the market is moving sideways.

Full Stochastic serves as an early warning indicator but is very sensitive and often there are false signals.
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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM: Bottoming- Indicators Mostly Neutral 21Apr17

0006 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily -

21Apr17 - S&P 500 SHORT TERM Indicators: Mostly Neutral

(1) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram improving
(2) Neutral: Slow Stochastic improving
(3) Minus: On Balance Volume is falling
(4) Neutral: 'EMA Medium Term' Trend is Neutral (EMA 13 Day is barely above EMA 34 Day)
(5) Neutral: ADX(14) and ADX(7) signal no Trend

13Apr17 - S&P 500 SHORT TERM Indicators look more Bearish

(1) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram looks increasingly negative
(2) Minus: Slow Stochastic is dropping
(3) Minus: On Balance Volume is falling
(4) Neutral: 'EMA Medium Term' Trend is Neutral (EMA 13 Day is barely above EMA 34 Day)
(5) Neutral: ADX(14) and ADX(7) signal there is no Trend

07Apr17 - S&P 500 SHORT TERM Indicators are in Neutral

(1) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram is unchanging (Flat)
(2) Neutral: Slow Stochastic are Flat
(3) Neutral: ADX(14) and ADX(7) signal Trend is gone
(4) Neutral: On Balance Volume is Flat
(5) Neutral: 'EMA Medium Term' Trend is Neutral (EMA 13 Day is barely above EMA 34 Day)

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When the EMA 13 Day (Green line) is above the EMA 34 Day (Red line), the Medium Term direction of the market is Up.
For Medium Term investing the EMA 13 Day vs. the EMA 34 Day shows when the overall market is trending up and it is probably OK to stay invested.

When the Medium Term of the market is Up, I use the MACD and the Stochastics for Buy and Sell signals.
When the Medium Term of the market is Down, I'm on the sidelines!
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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- Indicators Mixed 21Apr17

0007 - Two year Daily Chart of the S&P 500 (Proxy for the market).

21Apr17 - Indicators are mixed

(1) Minus: MACD, KST, TSI, and TRIX remain Bearish
(2) Neutral: SLOPE(20) continues below EMA(20) but flat
(3) Neutral: EMA of Slow Stochastic above Oversold
(4) Minus: StochRSI barely above Oversold
(5) Neutral: Market without Trend: ADX(14) below 20 and falling

13Apr17 - S&P 500 Testing the Lower Trend Line

(1) Bearish: MACD, KST, TSI, and TRIX are Bearish
(2) Neutral: SLOPE(20) is below EMA(20) but flat
(3) Bearish: Slow Stochastic falling toward Oversold and StochRSI is Oversold
(4) Bearish: Market without Trend: ADX(14) below 20 and falling

07Apr17 - S&P 500 Within the Trend Lines

(1) Bearish: MACD, KST, TSI, and TRIX are Bearish
(2) Neutral: SLOPE(20) is below EMA(20) but flat
(3) Neutral: Slow Stochastic bounced above Oversold but StochRSI continues Oversold
(4) Neutral: ADX(14) continued falling indicating Trend continuing to weaken

31Mar17 - S&P 500 is again above the Bottom Trend line

(1) Neutral: MACD, KST, TSI, and TRIX are Bearish but possibly bottoming
(2) Neutral: SLOPE is below EMA(20) but pointing up
(3) Neutral: Slow Stochastic and StochRSI are both above Oversold
(4) Neutral: ADX(14) is falling indicating Trend is weakening


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