Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 FollowersHas Been a Top Public ChartList for Over 3 Months Rank: 6 Followers: 306 Votes: 213 Years Member: 11 Last Update: 25 March 2017, 11:10 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

21Mar17 - Cliff Tumble: Substantial and broadly based market retreat. The 'Best of Breed' S&P 500 closed down 29.45 or 1.24%.

17Mar17 - International shares are higher

14Mar17 - For the last 10 days the Large caps (i.e. the S&P 500) are diverging from the Mid Caps, the Small Caps, and the Transports. See Chart 0200

09Mar17 - Many segments of the market are headed Down. Energy Sector and Gold hard hit

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SHORT TERM (Daily): 24Mar17 - Chart 0000.2: Summary of Market Strength Charts (0300 - 0440): Strong Bearish Bias: 14 Charts- 1 Bullish, 2 Neutral, 11 Bearish

MEDIUM TERM (Weekly): 24Mar17 - Chart 0002: S&P 500 Weekly Bullish Trend Encountering Some Headwinds

LONG TERM (Monthly): 24Mar17 - Chart 0001: The Bullish Trend continues however March, with only 5 trading days left, is down 0.83%

Winners List: 17Mar17 - SMH(1920), XLK(1950), EWN(2200), PIN(2850), EPI(2860), TQQQ(3100), QLD(3120), SOXL(3130), SVXY(4510), XIV(4580)

Less

0000.1 - SHORT TERM (Daily) Rating Summary - as of 23Mar17

0000.1 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary -

23Mar: Once again ETF Ratings are relatively equally distributed

(1) 55 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) 39 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) 45 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

16Mar: ETF Ratings are relatively equally distributed

(1) 57 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) 41 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) 41 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

09Mar: Many ETFs are Turning Down or are Bearish-

(1) 34 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) 15 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) 90 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

02Mar: Not as many Bulls and a large number of these are Topping

(1) 84 ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) 23 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) 42 ETFs have been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

23Feb:
(1) 97 ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) 15 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) 37 ETFs have been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

0000.2 - Market Strength Summary- Strong Bearish Bias: 1 Bull, 2 Neutral, 11 Bear 24Mar17

0000.2 - Market Strength Chart Summary-

As of 24Mar17 - Strong Bearish Bias

(1) 1 chart is Bullish
(2) 2 charts are Neutral
(3) 11 charts are Bearish

As of 17Mar17 - Neutral with a Bullish Bias

(1) 4 charts are Bullish.
(2) 9 charts are Neutral.
(3) 1 chart is Bearish

As of 10Mar17 - Bearish Tone
(1) 2 charts are Bullish.
(2) 2 charts are Neutral.
(3) 10 charts are Bearish

As of 03Mar17 - Neutral Tone
(1) 3 charts are Bullish.
(2) 8 charts are Neutral.
(3) 3 charts are Bearish

As of 24Feb17 - Bullish
(1) 8 charts are Bullish.
(2) 6 charts are Neutral.
(3) 0 charts are Bearish


0000.3 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement

0000.3 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement-

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Note: As a general rule, I personally invest only in ETFs that are (1) 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and (2) liquid (Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000).

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
0100 - 0190 Weekly Sector Charts (Page 3)
0200 - 0440 Market Strength Assessment (Page 4)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 21)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 47)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 47)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 47)

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0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Month- LONG TERM (Monthly): Bullish Trend Continues- 24Mar17

0001 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?

24Mar17 - Bullish Trend Continues

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) has crossed Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought.
(4) Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought.
(5) Neutral: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is slightly below Overbought

17Mar17 - Note: Bullish Trend however March has developed a Japanese Candlestick Spinning Top

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) has crossed Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought.
(4) Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought.
(5) Plus: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is Overbought

10Mar17 - Bullish Trend. February was very strong but so far, March not so much

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) has crossed Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought.
(4) Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought.
(5) Plus: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is Overbought

03Mar17 - Bullish Trend. February was a very strong month
(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) is Bullish, having just achieved a Bullish cross.

(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought.
(4) Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought.
(5) Plus: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is Overbought


0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Yrs Week- MEDIUM TERM (Weekly) Topping- Bull 24Mar17

0002 - The MEDIUM TERM (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500-

24Mar17 - Weekly Bullish Trend Encountering Some Headwinds

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) is below Overbought and is dropping
(2) Neutral: Bullish but fading => MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX
(3) Neutral: AROON is Bullish but has leveled off
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic continues Overbought but it's falling
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Plus: ADX(14) is above 25 and rising - signaling a Trend (Up)

22Mar17 - S&P 500 Encountering Headwinds

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) has dropped below Overbought
(2) Neutral: MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX are Bullish but fading
(3) Plus: AROON is Bullish and very slowly rising
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastics continue Overbought but fading
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Plus: ADX(14) is above 25 and rising - signaling a Trend (Up)

17Mar17 - Indicators Continue To Support Rally

(1) Plus: RSI(14) continues Overbought
(2) Plus: MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX are Bullish
(3) Plus: AROON is Bullish and slowly rising
(4) Plus: Full Stochastics continue Overbought
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Plus: ADX(14) is above 25 and rising - signaling a Trend (Up)

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- SHORT TERM (Daily)- RSI: Down- Turning Down 24Mar17

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Daily- SHORT TERM (Daily)-

24Mar17- Daily Indicators Suggest Possible Market Downturn

(1) Minus: RSI(14) has dropped below 50 (Bearish)
(2) Neutral: Long Term Indicator Special K is dropping
(3) Minus: Indicators MACD, PMO, TRIX and SLOPE have crossed Bearish
(4) Minus: Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics are below 50 and falling
(5) Minus: ROC and Chaikin Oscillator are below 0 and falling
(6) Minus: MFI, ULT, and STO are falling
(7) Plus: The Medium Term Trend (EMA 13 over EMA 34) continues Bullish.
(8) Minus: Vortex (VTX) shows developing Bearish Trend

17Mar17- Market appears no longer in a Trend

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) has dropped from Overbought but is flat
(2) Plus: Long Term Indicator Special K continues very Bullish
(3) Minus: Indicators MACD, PMO, TRIX and SLOPE have crossed Bearish
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics are below Overbought but rising
(5) Neutral: ROC is flat and Chaikin Oscillator above 0 but drifting lower
(6) Neutral: MFI and ULT are below Overbought but STO is above 0
(7) Plus: The Medium Term Trend (EMA 13 over EMA 34) continues Bullish.
(8) Neutral: Vortex Indicator (VTX) suggests there is no Trend

10Mar17- Market Indicators paint mixed picture

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) has dropped from Overbought but is rising
(2) Plus: Long Term Indicator Special K continues very Bullish
(3) Minus: Indicators MACD and PMO have turned Bearish; TRIX is close to Bearish
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics have fallen from Overbought
(5) Neutral: ROC and Chaikin Oscillator are bottoming and are Bullish (above 0)
(6) Minus: MFI, ULT, and STO are below Overbought and falling
(7) Plus: The Medium Term Trend (EMA 13 over EMA 34) continues Bullish.
(8) Neutral: Vortex Indicator (VTX) suggests Up Trend is fading

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Daily- Below Bottom of Trading Channel - 23Mar17

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily -

24Mar17 - More Indicators Turned Bearish

(1) Minus: RSI EMA(20) below Overbought and continuing to fall
(2) Minus: MACD,TSI, and TRIX are Bearish
(3) Neutral: SLOPE EMA(20) is above 0 but falling
(4) Neutral: ROC EMA(20) is just above 0 but falling
(5) Minus: Money Flow Index is below 50 and nearing Oversold
(6) Minus: Slow Stochastic is below 20 (Oversold)
(7) Neutral: ADX signals that Bullish Trend is fading

17Mar17 - Indicators mostly Neutral

(1) Neutral: RSI EMA(20) below Overbought
(2) Minus: MACD,TSI, and TRIX crossed Bearish
(3) Neutral: SLOPE EMA(20) and ROC EMA(20) are cresting
(4) Neutral: Money Flow Index has fallen below Overbought
(5) Neutral: Slow Stochastic is below 80 (Overbought)
(6) Neutral: ADX signals that Bullish Trend is fading

10Mar17 - Repeat: Indicators mostly Neutral

(1) Neutral: RSI EMA(20) fell from Overbought
(2) Minus: MACD, and TSI achieved Bearish crosses, TRIX is close
(3) Neutral: SLOPE EMA(20) and ROC EMA(20) are cresting
(4) Neutral: Volume weighted MFI has fallen below Overbought
(5) Neutral: Slow Stochastic is below 80 (Overbought)
(6) Neutral: ADX is falling signaling a less Bullish Trend

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Down- Turning Down 24Mar17

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day.

24Mar17- Indicators painting a Bearish picture

(1) Minus: RSI(14) below Overbought and falling
(2) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) is Bearish (below 0) and Histogram going lower
(3) Minus: SLOPE is below 0 and falling
(4) Minus: Full and Slow Stochastics are Oversold
(5) Minus: ROC (Rate of Change) is below 0
(6) Neutral: S&P 500 'EMA Medium Term Trend' less Bullish: less distance between EMA(13) and EMA(34)
(7) Minus: Vortex signals developing 'Down Trend'

17Mar17- Indicators paint a Neutral picture

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) below Overbought and flat
(2) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) is Bearish (below 0) but Histogram is flat
(3) Neutral: SLOPE is just above 0
(4) Plus: Full and Slow Stochastics are rising
(5) Neutral: ROC (Rate of Change) is fairly flat
(6) Plus: S&P 500 'EMA Medium Term Trend' continues Bullish: EMA(13) is above EMA(34)
(7) Neutral: Vortex signals 'No Trend'


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Rising Medium Term Trend: The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 13 Day (Green Line) is above the 34 Day (Red Line).

Signals: A Green Arrow is Bullish and a Red Arrow is Bearish.

MACD provides a fairly reliable indication of market direction. MACD crossovers generally signal when it is a good time to buy or sell.

CAUTION: MACD assumes that the market is trending. MACD is reliable when the market is in a Trend but can result in Whipsaws when the market is moving sideways.

Full Stochastic serves as an early warning indicator but is very sensitive and often there are false signals.
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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Daily- Short Term: Downward Trajectory- 24Mar17

0006 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily -

24Mar17 - S&P 500 on Downward Trajectory

(1) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) below 0 (Bearish)
(2) Minus: Slow Stochastic near Oversold
(3) Minus: ADX(14) continues to fall signaling 'ADX Medium Term' Up Trend weakening
(4) Minus: On Balance Volume is falling
(5) Plus: Continued 'EMA Medium Term' Up Trend (EMA 13 Day above EMA 34 Day)

17Mar17 - S&P 500 possibly forming a Wedge

(1) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) has crossed below 0 (Bearish)
(2) Neutral: Slow Stochastic 25 but falling slowly ==> 'ADX Medium Term' Up Trend weakening
(4) Neutral: On Balance Volume is flat
(5) Plus: Continued 'EMA Medium Term' Up Trend (EMA 13 Day above EMA 34 Day)

10Mar17 - The S&P 500 Up Trend has Weakened

(1) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) has crossed below 0 (Bearish)
(2) Neutral: Slow Stochastic is below Overbought (under 80)
(3) Neutral: On Balance Volume cresting
(4) Plus: Continued 'EMA Medium Term' Up Trend (EMA 13 Day above EMA 34 Day)
(5) Neutral: ADX(14) is above 25 but falling ==> 'ADX Medium Term' Up Trend weakening

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When the EMA 13 Day (Green line) is above the EMA 34 Day (Red line), the Medium Term direction of the market is Up.
For Medium Term investing the EMA 13 Day vs. the EMA 34 Day shows when the overall market is trending up and it is probably OK to stay invested.

When the Medium Term of the market is Up, I use the MACD and the Stochastics for Buy and Sell signals.
When the Medium Term of the market is Down, I'm on the sidelines!
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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 10 Day Hourly- Intraday Sign: Falling CHANDLR: Bearish - 24Mar17

0007 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

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FYI: When the price is above the Chandelier Exit (CHANDLR) and the CHANDLR is rising, it suggests an Uptrend. Conversely, when the price is under the CHANDLR and the CHANDLR is falling, it suggests a Downtrend.

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