Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 FollowersHas Been a Top Public ChartList for Over 3 Months Rank: 6 Followers: 304 Votes: 198 Years Member: 11 Last Update: 25 May 2017, 18:42 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

25May17 - New All-Time-Record for S&P 500

24May17 - Another day of gains; Updated Charts 1000 - 1999 (United States ETFs)

23May17 - Many ETFs continue to trade within or close to the top of the Trading Range of several months standing; Updated Charts 2000 to 2999 (International ETFs)

22May17 - Mind the date on the Chart to know when it was updated; Updated Charts 4000 to 4999 (Metals, Energy, CEFs, and Bonds) and Charts 3000 to 3999 (Leveraged ETFs)

19May17 - Domestic and International shares partially recover; Per Chart 0000.1: Most ETFs are rated Neutral (54) then Bearish (47) and finally Bullish (38)

18May17 - Updating Charts 1000 - 1999 (United States ETFs)

=======================================================================================================================================

Monthly (LONG TERM): 19May17 - Chart 0001: Monthly Trend: Flattening Out

Weekly (MEDIUM TERM): 19May17 - Chart 0002: Weekly S&P 500: Political turmoil and Market at Resistance make for a volatile mix

Daily (SHORT TERM): 19May17 - Market Strength Charts (0300 - 0440). Tone More Bearish: 1 Bullish, 5 Neutral, 8 Bearish (See Summary Chart 0000.2)

Identify latest changes via Date (end of Chart Title)

Less

0000.1 - SHORT TERM (Daily) Rating Summary: Neutral (54), Bearish (47), Bullish (38) as of 18May17

0000.1 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary

18May ? Most ETFs are rated Neutral (54) then Bearish (47) and finally Bullish (38)

(1) 38 ETFs are Bullish: Bull (27) + Stronger (11)
(2) 54 ETFs have been rated Neutral
(3) 47 ETFs are Bearish: Bear (17) + Weaker (30)

11May - More ETFs rated Neutral (60), then Bullish (49), and lastly Bearish (30)

(1) 49 ETFs are Bullish: Bull (33) + Stronger (16)
(2) 60 ETFs have been rated Neutral
(3) 30 ETFs are Bearish: Bear (11) + Weaker (19)


04May: Many ETFs are rated Bullish and many ETFs are rated Bearish

(1) 48 ETFs are Bullish: Bull (47) + Turning Up (1)
(2) 39 ETFs have been rated Neutral
(3) 52 ETFs are Bearish: Bear (23) + Turning Down (29)

27Apr: Most ETFs are rated Bull or Turning Up

(1) 85 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2)
(2) 31 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0)
(3) 23 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4)

20Apr: Most ETFs are rated Neutral

(1) 39 ETFs are Bullish having been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2)
(2) 59 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0)
(3) 41 ETFs are Bearish having been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4)



0000.2 - Market Strength Summary- Tone More Bearish: 1 Bull, 5 Neutral, 8 Bear as of 19May17

0000.2 - Market Strength Chart Summary-

As of 19May17 - Tone More Bearish

(1) 1 charts are Bullish
(2) 5 charts are Neutral
(3) 8 charts are Bearish

As of 12May17 - Bearish Tone

(1) 3 charts are Bullish
(2) 3 charts are Neutral
(3) 8 charts are Bearish

As of 05May17 - Evenly Split

(1) 4 charts are Bullish
(2) 6 charts are Neutral
(3) 4 charts are Bearish

As of 28Apr17 - Either Bullish or Neutral

(1) 7 charts are Bullish
(2) 6 charts are Neutral
(3) 1 chart is Bearish

As of 21Apr17 - Mostly Neutral

(1) 3 charts are Bullish
(2) 8 charts are Neutral
(3) 3 charts are Bearish


0000.3 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement

0000.3 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement-

======================================================================================================

Note: As a general rule, I personally invest only in ETFs that are (1) 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and (2) liquid (Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000).

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
0100 - 0190 Weekly Sector Charts (Page 3)
0200 - 0440 Market Strength Assessment (Page 4)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 21)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 47)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 47)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 47)

======================================================================================================

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) LONG TERM- Monthly Trend: Flattening Out- 19May17

0001 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?

19May17 - Midweek dip didn't phase Monthly Trend Indicators which remain Bullish

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) is Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic is Overbought
(3) Plus: Williams %R is Overbought
(4) Plus: StochRSI is Overbought
(5) Plus: MFI is rising and very close to Overbought
(6) Plus: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is Overbought

12May17 - Monthly Trend Indicators remain Bullish

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) is Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic is Overbought
(3) Plus: Williams %R is Overbought
(4) Plus: StochRSI is Overbought
(5) Plus: MFI is rising and very close to Overbought
(6) Plus: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is Overbought

05May17 - Monthly Trend Indicators are Bullish

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) is Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic is Overbought
(3) Plus: Williams %R is Overbought
(4) Plus: StochRSI is Overbought
(5) Plus: MFI is rising and very close to Overbought
(6) Plus: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is Overbought

28Apr17 - Monthly Trend Indicators are once again Bullish

(1) Plus: PMO(35,20,10) remains Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought
(3) Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought
(4) Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought
(5) Plus: Ultimate Oscillator (ULT) is flat but very close to Overbought



0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) MEDIUM TERM- RSI: Up- Bull 25May17

0002 - The MEDIUM TERM (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500-

19May17 - Political turmoil and Market at Resistance make for a volatile mix

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) hit 70 and is slowly sinking
(2) Minus: MACD, TSI, and TRIX continue Bearish, PPO continues Neutral
(3) Plus: AROON rising, suggesting more Buyers than Sellers
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic dipped, ULT falling
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Neutral: ADX(14) and VTX(14) - signal Up Trend is struggling

12May17 - Market Hitting Resistance

(1) Plus: RSI(14) is above 50 and slowly rising
(2) Minus: MACD, TSI, and TRIX are Bearish, PPO Neutral
(3) Plus: AROON rising, suggesting more Buyers than Sellers
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic rising, ULT falling
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Neutral: ADX(14) and VTX(14) - signal possible end of Up Trend

05May17 - Weekly Indicators look less Bearish

(1) Plus: RSI(14) is above 50 and rising
(2) Minus: MACD, TSI, and TRIX are Bearish; PPO Neutral
(3) Neutral: AROON remains flat, suggesting standoff between Buyers and Sellers
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic is rising; ULT still falling
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Neutral: ADX(14) and VTX(14) - signal possible end of Up Trend

28Apr17 - Strong week makes Indicators look less Bearish

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) is slightly below Overbought
(2) Bearish: MACD, TSI, and TRIX are Bearish
(3) Neutral: AROON remains flat; Signals standoff between Buyers and Sellers
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic and ULT are just below Overbought
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)
(6) Neutral: ADX(14) and VTX(14) - signal possible end of Up Trend

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- RSI: Up- Stronger 24May17

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Daily- SHORT TERM (Daily)

19May17- Indicators reflect volatile market conditions

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) fell below 50 (Neutral Line) but is now ~50 and rising
(2) Minus: MACD, TRIX, PMO, and SLOPE crossed Bearish
(3) Minus: Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics below Overbought and falling
(4) Neutral: ROC just under 0, Chaikin Oscillator is above 0 but falling
(5) Minus: ULT below 50
(6) Plus: The Medium Term Trend is Bullish (EMA 13 over EMA 34)
(7) Plus: Long Term Indicator Special K continues Bullish
(8) Neutral: Vortex (VTX): suggests no Trend

12May17- Indicators suggest rise in prices less certain

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) above 50 (Neutral Line) but fading
(2) Neutral: MACD, TRIX, PMO, and SLOPE are Bullish but have crested
(3) Neutral: Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics are fading
(4) Neutral: ROC is falling but Chaikin Oscillator is rising
(5) Neutral: ULT is above 50 but fairly flat
(6) Plus: The Medium Term Trend is Bullish (EMA 13 over EMA 34)
(7) Plus: Long Term Indicator Special K is rising
(8) Neutral: Vortex (VTX) : slight Trend higher ending

05May17- Indicators suggest continued slow upward rise in prices

(1) Plus: RSI(14) above 50 (Neutral Line)
(2) Plus: MACD, TRIX, PMO, and SLOPE are Bullish
(3) Plus: Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics are Overbought
(4) Plus: ROC and Chaikin Oscillator are above 0 and rising
(5) Neutral: ULT is above 50 but fairly flat
(6) Plus: The Medium Term Trend is Bullish (EMA 13 over EMA 34)
(7) Plus: Long Term Indicator Special K is rising
(8) Neutral: Vortex (VTX) suggests slight Trend higher




0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- S&P 500 Over Zone of Resistance 24May17

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily

19May17 - Through the lens of Moving Averages: Neutral

(1) Plus: RSI EMA(20) is above 50
(2) Minus: MACD,TSI, and TRIX have crossed Bearish
(3) Plus: SLOPE EMA(20) is above 0
(4) Plus: ROC EMA(20) is above 0
(5) Neutral: MFI is just below 50
(6) Minus: Slow Stochastic fell below Overbought and is dropping
(7) Neutral: ADX(14) is just above 20 and slowly dropping: Interpretation: Uncertain Trend

12May17 - Lower probability of rising prices

(1) Plus: RSI EMA(20) is above 50 and rising
(2) Neutral: MACD,TSI, and TRIX are Bullish but fading
(3) Plus: SLOPE EMA(20) is above 0 and rising
(4) Plus: ROC EMA(20) is above 0 and rising
(5) Neutral: MFI is above 50 but no longer rising
(6) Plus: Slow Stochastic is Overbought
(7) Neutral: ADX(14) is above 20 and rising: Interpretation: Weak Trend

05May17 - Indicators suggest rising prices

(1) Plus: RSI EMA(20) is above 50 and rising
(2) Plus: MACD,TSI, and TRIX are Bullish
(3) Plus: SLOPE EMA(20) is above 0 and rising
(4) Plus: ROC EMA(20) is above 0 and rising
(5) Neutral: MFI has crossed above 50 and is slowly rising
(6) Plus: Slow Stochastic is Overbought
(7) Neutral: ADX(14) is above 20 and rising: Interpretation: Weak Trend

28Apr17 - Stronger market: Indicators suggestive of higher prices

(1) Neutral: RSI EMA(20) has begun to rise
(2) Plus: MACD,TSI, and TRIX have crossed Bullish
(3) Neutral: SLOPE EMA(20) is close to 0
(4) Neutral: ROC EMA(20) is close to 0
(5) Neutral: MFI is rising
(6) Plus: Slow Stochastic is Overbought
(7) Neutral: ADX signals beginning to rise




0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- Indicators Improving- 24May17

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day- SHORT TERM

19May17- Indicators continue to look weak

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) quick dip below 50
(2) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) crossed Bearish
(3) Minus: SLOPE well below 0 and falling
(4) Minus: Full Stochastic and Slow Stochastics below Overbought and falling
(5) Neutral: ROC (Rate of Change) quick dip below 0
(6) Plus: S&P 500 Medium Term Trend is Bullish: EMA(13) is above EMA(34)
(7) Neutral: VTX and ADX signal no Trend

12May17- Indicators are Weakening

(1) Neutral: RSI(14) above 50 but falling
(2) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram nearly below 0
(3) Neutral: SLOPE is above 0 but fairly flat
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic is Overbought but Slow Stochastics is not and its falling
(5) Neutral: ROC (Rate of Change) almost 0 and falling
(6) Plus: S&P 500 Medium Term Trend is Bullish: EMA(13) is above EMA(34)
(7) Plus: VTX signals weak Up Trend

**************************************************************************************************************************************************
Rising Medium Term Trend: The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 13 Day (Green Line) is above the 34 Day (Red Line).

Signals: A Green Arrow is Bullish and a Red Arrow is Bearish.

MACD provides a fairly reliable indication of market direction. MACD crossovers generally signal when it is a good time to buy or sell.

CAUTION: MACD assumes that the market is trending. MACD is reliable when the market is in a Trend but can result in Whipsaws when the market is moving sideways.

Full Stochastic serves as an early warning indicator but is very sensitive and often there are false signals.
**********************************************************************************************************************************

0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM: Close to All-Time-High- 24May17

0006 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily

19May17 - S&P 500 SHORT TERM Indicators: Brief New High; Volatile week

(1) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) crossed Bearish
(2) Minus: Slow Stochastic below Overbought and falling
(3) Neutral: On Balance Volume volatile
(4) Plus: Medium Term Trend is Bullish (EMA 13 Day is above EMA 34 Day)
(5) Neutral: ADX(14): no SHORT TERM Trend, ADX(7): persistent VERY SHORT TERM Trend
(6) Neutral: VTX: No Short Term Trend

12May17 - S&P 500 SHORT TERM Indicators: Look Less Bullish

(1) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) is almost Bearish
(2) Neutral: Slow Stochastic Overbought but fading
(3) Neutral: Rise of On Balance Volume may be ending
(4) Plus: Medium Term Trend is Bullish (EMA 13 Day is above EMA 34 Day)
(5) Neutral: ADX(14): weakening SHORT TERM Trend, ADX(7): ending of VERY SHORT TERM Trend
(6) Neutral: VTX: Short Term Up Trend fading

05May17 - S&P 500 SHORT TERM Indicators: Bullish

(1) Plus: MACD(12,26,9) is Bullish
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic continues Overbought
(3) Plus: On Balance Volume is rising
(4) Plus: Medium Term Trend is Bullish (EMA 13 Day is above EMA 34 Day)
(5) Neutral: ADX(14) signals possible start of SHORT TERM Trend, ADX(7) signals VERY SHORT TERM Trend
(6) Plus: VTX suggests Short Term Up Trend


***********************************************************************************************************************************************
When the EMA 13 Day (Green line) is above the EMA 34 Day (Red line), the Medium Term direction of the market is Up.
For Medium Term investing the EMA 13 Day vs. the EMA 34 Day shows when the overall market is trending up and it is probably OK to stay invested.

When the Medium Term of the market is Up, I use the MACD and the Stochastics for Buy and Sell signals.
When the Medium Term of the market is Down, I'm on the sidelines!
***********************************

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- Bounced Off Lower Trend Line 24May17

0007 - Two year Daily Chart of the S&P 500 (Proxy for the market)

19May17 - Murky Picture (Volatile)

(1) Minus: MACD, TSI, and TRIX crossed Bearish, KST close to Bearish
(2) Plus: SLOPE above 0 (Bullish)
(3) Neutral: Slow Stochastic are below Overbought
(4) Neutral: StochRSI bounced from below Oversold
(5) Neutral: ADX(14) almost below 20 and sinking- No trend

12May17 - Less Bullish Picture

(1) Neutral: MACD, KST, TSI, and TRIX Bullish but crossovers likely
(2) Plus: SLOPE above 0 (Bullish)
(3) Plus: Slow Stochastic are Overbought
(4) Neutral: StochRSI is just below Overbought and falling
(5) Neutral: Trend less likely: ADX(14) below 25 and falling

05May17 - Indicators are Bullish

(1) Plus: MACD, KST, TSI, and TRIX continue Bullish
(2) Plus: SLOPE above 0 (Bullish)
(3) Plus: Slow Stochastic are Overbought
(4) Plus: StochRSI are Overbought
(5) Neutral: Possible Market Trend: ADX(14) above 20 (and rising)

28Apr17 - Indicators are Bullish or Neutral

(1) Plus: MACD, KST, TSI, and TRIX crossed Bullish
(2) Plus: SLOPE(20) above 0
(3) Neutral: Slow Stochastic above Oversold and rising
(4) Neutral: StochRSI above Oversold and rising
(5) Neutral: Market continues without Trend: ADX(14) below 20 (but started rising)


This information is presented for education purposes only. StockCharts.com is not responsible for any comments, advice, or annotations presented on this page. Please review our Terms of Use for more details.