10 Riding the Storm: Elliott Wave Market Analysis

Andrew Aldrich Rank: 79 Followers: 5 Votes: 1 Years Member: 15 Last Update: 27 March 2017, 15:32 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
Chart Patterns

The great mistake is to anticipate the outcome of the engagement; you ought not to be thinking of whether it ends in victory or in defeat. Let nature take its course and your tools will strike at the right moment.
Bruce Lee

In the end, and with every improvement in science, the result depends more and more on the character of the Leader and his power of resisting 'the sensuous impressions of the battlefield.
Carl von Clausewitz, (On War (Vom Kriege)

It would, therefore, be a great mistake to draw the conclusion that a blind dash must always gain the victory over skill and caution. An unskilful attack would lead to the destruction of our own and not of the enemy's force, and therefore is not what is here meant.
Carl von Clausewitz, (On War (Vom Kriege)

On the negative side, whenever we are forced into a disadvantageous position which fundamentally endangers the preservation of our forces, we should have the courage to retreat, so as to preserve our forces and hit the enemy when new opportunities arise. (Mao Tse Tung)
My thoughts: study a good book on guerrilla warfare and apply those tactics and principles to trading. In reality traders are financial guerrilla warriors making raids against superior forces and retreating to the safety of their mountain wilderness. Fight when the odds are in your favor and live to fight another day when they are no longer in your favor.

Disclaimer: this is all just my opinion and interpretation. The work here is not intended to be used to trade the markets. The charts displayed here are meant to be of possible use in learning and refining ones Elliott Wave skills.


!!$$$Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)

!!$SPX - 1 min OHLC Bars, 1024

See NAZ 60-min for best picture and analysis.

Ditto 4/30 analysis.

4/30/16 (see 60-min & daily charts page 2)
From the 2009 bottom we have been in a 4th wave since last May. That 4th wave may have completed at the Feb lows or it could be extending in time.
It was possible 4th wave triangles were in play with the rise off the Feb lows the triangle D-waves. The triangle count was invalidated on DOW and SPX.
Still possible on NAZ. If the 4th wave is extending it would be as a double 3.

Preferred count is the bottom is in at Feb lows and the move up is wave-1. The current move down being wave-2.
Alternate count is the double 3 is still in progress and open to multiple interpretations as to where we are within that wave.

The 3 options listed in the 3/22 update still apply. See 60-min charts page 2. The triangle option will be invalidated if this leg up takes out the high of the potential D wave.
Also note that waves almost always extend much further in time and points than you think. Having some kind of trend following system to add to your EW can be a big help.
As an example the inverse head and shoulders patterns on the intraday charts this week were a good sign that the correction was not something bigger and new highs were coming.

3/22/16 see 60-min charts page 2. Where are we?
1) At or near the end of the triangle D wave. E wave down soon to come.
2) Somewhere within a more complex double-3 either in an x-wave or y-wave depending on how you choose to count the 4 waves (A-B-C-D as listed).
3) The triangle D wave is actually wave-1 of a 5th wave ending diagonal that terminates the bull run off the 2009 bottom.

!$$INDU - 1 min OHLC Bars, 1024

!$COMPQ - 1 min OHLC Bars, 1024

$$$$WTIC- Daily OHLC Bars, Wide (700)

$$$WTIC - Daily OHLC Bars, 900

No change here either. A bottom could be in per the weekly red count. or we could be nearing the top of the ending diagonal 4th wave.

If the bounce off 26 is the ending diagonal 4th wave expect the bounce to advance above 37.75. Should that happen we would expect the ED 5th wave to terminate somewhere in the 20's. We could also be in an x-wave that may not overlap with 37.75. Either way lower prices would be expected. Note how oil and stocks are moving together. An oil ending diagonal 5th wave and the stock market triangle E-wave would fit nicely into that profile.

The ED count is no longer certain. ED 4th waves should overlap with 1st waves. The suspected 4th wave high at 34.82 did not overlap with the 1st wave low at 37.75.
If the ED is correct did the 3rd wave bottom at 26.05? If the ED is not happening then we are just moving down in a series of zigzags.

09 XLE - Daily OHLC Bars, 780

10Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT)

10RUT - 60 min OHLC Bars, 900

11Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT)

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