10 Riding the Storm: Elliott Wave Market Analysis
!!$$$Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)
!!$SPX - 1 min OHLC Bars, 1024
See NAZ 60-min for best picture and analysis.
Ditto 4/30 analysis.
4/30/16 (see 60-min & daily charts page 2)
From the 2009 bottom we have been in a 4th wave since last May. That 4th wave may have completed at the Feb lows or it could be extending in time.
It was possible 4th wave triangles were in play with the rise off the Feb lows the triangle D-waves. The triangle count was invalidated on DOW and SPX.
Still possible on NAZ. If the 4th wave is extending it would be as a double 3.
Preferred count is the bottom is in at Feb lows and the move up is wave-1. The current move down being wave-2.
Alternate count is the double 3 is still in progress and open to multiple interpretations as to where we are within that wave.
The 3 options listed in the 3/22 update still apply. See 60-min charts page 2. The triangle option will be invalidated if this leg up takes out the high of the potential D wave.
Also note that waves almost always extend much further in time and points than you think. Having some kind of trend following system to add to your EW can be a big help.
As an example the inverse head and shoulders patterns on the intraday charts this week were a good sign that the correction was not something bigger and new highs were coming.
3/22/16 see 60-min charts page 2. Where are we?
1) At or near the end of the triangle D wave. E wave down soon to come.
2) Somewhere within a more complex double-3 either in an x-wave or y-wave depending on how you choose to count the 4 waves (A-B-C-D as listed).
3) The triangle D wave is actually wave-1 of a 5th wave ending diagonal that terminates the bull run off the 2009 bottom.
!$$INDU - 1 min OHLC Bars, 1024
!$COMPQ - 1 min OHLC Bars, 1024
$$$$WTIC- Daily OHLC Bars, Wide (700)
$$$WTIC - Daily OHLC Bars, 900
No change here either. A bottom could be in per the weekly red count. or we could be nearing the top of the ending diagonal 4th wave.
If the bounce off 26 is the ending diagonal 4th wave expect the bounce to advance above 37.75. Should that happen we would expect the ED 5th wave to terminate somewhere in the 20's. We could also be in an x-wave that may not overlap with 37.75. Either way lower prices would be expected. Note how oil and stocks are moving together. An oil ending diagonal 5th wave and the stock market triangle E-wave would fit nicely into that profile.
The ED count is no longer certain. ED 4th waves should overlap with 1st waves. The suspected 4th wave high at 34.82 did not overlap with the 1st wave low at 37.75.
If the ED is correct did the 3rd wave bottom at 26.05? If the ED is not happening then we are just moving down in a series of zigzags.
09 XLE - Daily OHLC Bars, 780
10Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT)
10RUT - 60 min OHLC Bars, 900
11Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT)