Here is the weekly report for all the various sentiment indicators that we track for the week ending on May 2nd, 2014.
Our Wall Street Sentment Survey Results:
Weekly BULLS: 11%
Weekly BEARS: 56%
Our `Smart Money' Pollees were 0% Bullish and 80% Bearish.
Our Amateur Trader Pollees were 0% Bullish and 75% Bearish.
This week, the WSS Surveyees are leaning rather Bearish. The "Smart Money" Traders are are leaning rather Bearish, and the "Amateurs" are too. This doesn't bode all that ill for the market, though it's also not inconsistent with another downside extension. When everyone is Beared-up, though, it's often hard to get too much going on the downside, even though a lot of those folks know what they're doing. All in all, I think this data suggests lower prices, but I also suspect that more pullback won't last too long. Note that these surveys are of a virtually static pool of participants. The same traders and/types of traders have been participating for 18 years now with few additions or subtractions.
Message Board Sentiment Polls:
Message Board Opinion - NEUTRAL.
Bulls 16%
Bears 37%
Actual Position Poll - Short Term BEARISH, Intermediate Term BEARISH.
11% Fully Long
26% Partially Long
5% Partially Short
16% Fully Short.
Fully Long/Fully Short Ratio: NEUTRAL.
The Fully Long/Fully Short ratio is neutral, but the large number of partially long Bulls suggests some downside. They love to shake the weak-handed Bulls loose with a down draft. We may fall before we rally. The 5-day remains Negative.
If you'd like to check out these poll results real time, the polls are pinned at the top of this page.
Options-based Sentiment Indicators:
Daily P/C ratio: 0.95. Neutral.
10-day P/C ratio: 0.88. Neutral.
Equity P/C ratio: 0.65. Neutral.
OEX PC ratio (not a fade): 1.13. Still on a Sell from Friday.
OEX 10-day PC ratio: 1.64. Neutral.
ISEE Sentiment Index: 113. Neutral.
10-Day ISEE Sentiment Index: 115. Neutral.
Options Oscillator: 11. Neutral.
Relative VIX: Neutral.
Daily VIX: Sell.
CBOE:SPX: Marginal Sell. Un-Confirmed.
OBSG: Neutral-near a Buy.
The options are looking mostly Neutral, but the OEX PC from Friday is a bit Bearish for the market, and so is the VIX. The CBOE:SPX turned down ever-so-marginally, but did not confirm. Most options indicators are contrary; if most folks are buying calls, we want to fade them and go short and vice versa. The OEX nominal P/C is an exception, because the OEX traders tend to be right, unless they are paying up for options (which will show up in the $-weighted data). The ISEE Sentiment Index indicator is contrarian; traditionally, over 200 is too optimistic, under 100 is too pessimistic.
General Public Sentiment Polls:
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model is now Neutral, barely.
National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Sentiment Survey reported that the Median market exposure rose to 85.00% from 80.00%. The mean exposure rose some from 76.58% to 82.63%. The minimum exposure remained at 50% SHORT. The Maximum exposure jumped to 210% long--I don't remember seeing it that high before. Somebody is really Bullish.
AAII is showing 29.77% Bulls and 29.45% Bears. Last week, we had 34.50% Bulls and 26.02%. This is less Bulls and a more Bears. This is modestly Bullish.
Investors Intelligence reported 54.70% Bulls and 20.60% Bears vs. 51.60% Bulls and 21.70% Bears last week. That's more Bulls and a few less Bears. This is still a solid Sell.
The Newsletter Advisors got more Bullish at 52.90% (Long) vs 41.20% (Long). This is pretty Bulled-up. The Naz advisors got Bullish at 18.80% (Long) vs. 18.80% (Short). Such a Bullish shift is at least mildly Bearish, I think.
Lazlo Birinyi's site, Tickersense reported 33.33% Bulls and 37.50% Bears vs. 29.17% Bulls and 41.67% Bears. That's an increase in Bullishness and a decrease in Bearishness. Looks Neutral to me. This is our least predictive survey.
TSP Talk came in (Thursday evening) with 54% Bulls and 32% Bears. This is Bearish for the market. They had 56% Bulls and 32% Bears last week.
Conclusion
Last week, I said that our "Best Trend" indicator turned back down, as did momentum, but on then the other hand, there was quite a bit of pessimism in the options suggesting a bounce. BUT the OEX P/C guys (not a fade) were shorting, which looked like they are discounting another bit of bad news. Basically, we had a mixed bag, with reason to look higher, but good potential for near -term weakness. Monday gapped up, traded down hard, then came back just as hard, about what you'd expect from such readings, actually. During the week, our "Best Fade" indicator turned up, and nearly gave a buy but Friday's action turned this indicator negative again. Momentum, however, remains positive as does breadth. The weekly survey shows a lot of Bears, even in the "Smart Money, which implies strength, but the "Amateurs" are also Beared up, which suggests, again that weakness will be short lived. The OEX gave a Sell on Friday and it's still on the market. Basically, the technicals suggest caution but so that weakness will resolve higher. Until breadth deteriorates, dips should probably be bought.
Mark Young
Editor, WallStreetSentiment.com
859-393-3335
For more on using Wall Street Sentiment and the various sentiment data included please visit http://www.WallStreetSentiment.com
