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Back from the Brink - Market Bulls Erase Today's Losses - ITTM Neutral Signal for S&P 600

by Erin Heim

*** IMPORTANT NOTE: We are making some changes to our DecisionPoint blogs and webinars starting on April 1st. Click here for more details.  *** The market opened down nearly 1% but bulls took the reins and pulled price up nearly to even for...  Read More

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STOCK INDEXES TEST 50-DAY LINES -- BOND PRICES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE

by John Murphy

MARKET INDEXES TRY TO FIND SUPPORT AT THEIR 50-DAY LINES... Today's lower open pushed several stock indexes down to their 50-day averages. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trying to regain lost ground in afternoon trading. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 trying to stay above that support line as well. Chart 3 shows the Nasdaq Composite trading higher this afternoon after nearing its  Read More

$TSX End Of Quarter Review

by Greg Schnell

The $TSX put in another lower low and a lower high this week and closed down relative to last week. The sideways trading range we see in the Canadian market is reminiscent of the period from July to October where the market traded around a level. The level currently shown as a red line is about 15500. On the price panel, this was the first week on the one year chart below that the  Read More

Dollar Threatening A Major Breakdown, Gold A Beneficiary

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, March 24, 2017 Friday was another day of bifurcated action with both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 higher while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 lagged and finished lower.  Sector performance wasn't any better with four sectors higher and five lower.  To make matters worse, leadership was mixed between aggressive and defensive groups.  The...  Read More

Small-caps Turn Negative Year-to-Date

by Arthur Hill

Small-caps are still leading the market since early November, but they are lagging in 2017 as year-to-date performance turned negative. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for seven major stock indexes. The Nasdaq 100 is up around 10% and leading the pack by a wide margin. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index and S&P MidCap 400 are positive...  Read More

There's Not Much To Like About This NASDAQ 100 Stock

by Tom Bowley

Stocks that combine poor fundamentals, technicals and seasonal weakness are probably stocks to avoid.  QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM) is one such stock as it was hit in January with multiple lawsuits and Apple's (AAPL) suit against QCOM really damaged the QCOM chart technically.  Here's a look at the breakdown that occurred following the AAPL suit announcement: Big volume declines like this one...  Read More

Animal Spirits

by Bruce Fraser

Leadership in the Technology Sector is generally a very good sign for the entire stock market. It bodes well for the market when technology stocks, as a group, are leadership as a rally starts. Speculative animal spirits are heightened by the emerging leadership of the Technology Sector. Conversely when technology stocks are generally laggards, caution is warranted for the market as a whole.  Read More

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What Are Bond Market Intermarket Relationships Saying About Inflation?

by Martin Pring

The TIP/TLT Ratio reflects swings in commodity prices Watch that Technology/Staples ratio for a possible bullish breakout US breaking down against Global Equities The TIP/TLT ratio reflects swings in commodity prices When bond yields  are compared to commodity prices there is definitely a connection, as we can see from the matching green and red arrows  Read More

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Video - Weekly Market Review & Outlook - The Art of Fibonacci Applied to SPY

by Arthur Hill

-----   Video Link   -----   Art's Charts ChartList (updated 25-Mar)   -----      Note that the Art's Charts ChartList has been updated with 30 annotated charts covering the industry group ETFs. The outline above is for the video and I...  Read More

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New "DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap" with Carl Swenlin

by Erin Heim

*** IMPORTANT NOTE: We are making some changes to our DecisionPoint blogs and webinars starting on April 1st. Click here for more details.  *** If you're looking for this week's blog article that reviews all of the weekly charts that have...  Read More

DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap

by Carl Swenlin

*** IMPORTANT NOTE: We are making some changes to our DecisionPoint blogs and webinars starting on April 1st. Click here for more details. *** Welcome to the DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap, where I make an end-of-week assessment of the internal condition, and  Read More

Charts I'm Stalking: Action Practice #13

by Gatis Roze

For those readers who embrace my CORE and EXPLORE approach (this is actually my version of John Bogle's approach) with respect to Asset Allocation, you can see why I suggest considering  country funds for a small percentage of your EXPLORE portfolio.  Country funds fulfill the cardinal rule of diversification as their correlations to the USA markets are much lower.  Over the past...  Read More

China Unicom (CHU) Dials In To 52 Week Highs - Custom Size Tip

by Greg Schnell

China Unicom (CHU) is a huge telecommunications company as it ranks 4th in the world for subscribers. This week it extended a breakout and pushed up to fresh new highs. The SCTR is at it's highest level in 2 years and is above 75, which I think is a big positive. The weekly MACD made a positive cross above the zero level which usually suggests a lot of momentum to go  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook 24-Mar-17 - Correction Targets for the Major Index ETFs

by Arthur Hill

.... Signs of a Correction Mount .... Broad Market Breadth Deteriorates .... The Art of Fibonacci Applied to SPY .... RSI Breaks below 50 for QQQ .... Mid-caps and Small-caps are Currently Correcting .... Discretionary, Tech and Materials Hold Support .... Staples and Utilities Lead with New Highs .... Finance, Industrials and Healthcare Correct .... Energy Remains the Weakest Link .... Crude...  Read More

Biotechnology's Recent Failure Is Disappointing But All Hope Is Not Lost

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, March 23, 2017 The Russell 2000 gained on Thursday while the other major indices declined slightly due to a selloff in the final three hours.  Six of nine sectors finished in negative territory, led by energy (XLE, -0.41%).  Oil & equipment services ($DJUSOI) led the decline in energy, setting a fresh recent low.  The good news...  Read More

Small Caps Hang Onto Key Price Support

by Tom Bowley

The Russell 2000 has been under selling pressure but is now testing key support on both its daily and weekly charts.  There is a slight negative divergence that's present on its weekly chart, so that would be a signal of possible weakness ahead.  The good news is that none of the other major indices have similar momentum issues on their longer-term weekly charts.  Still, let's...  Read More

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Declining Trend Channel Forms on SPY

by Erin Heim

*** IMPORTANT NOTE: We are making some changes to our DecisionPoint blogs and webinars starting on April 1st. Click here for more details.  *** We are still waiting on the NDX to change its ST Trend Model signal to a Neutral. Fortunately  Read More

Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-03-23

by Greg Schnell

Here is the link to Commodities Countdown 2017-03-23 Video Recording. Commodities Countdown With Greg Schnell 2017-03-23 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.    Read More

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FALLING DOLLAR CONTRIBUTES TO RISING EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES AND STOCKS -- MEXICAN PESO AND STOCK ETF ALSO GAIN GROUND

by John Murphy

EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES SUPPORT RISING STOCKS... Previous messages have shown the rise in emerging market stocks, partially owing to the drop in the U.S. dollar. The same can be said of EM currencies. The red line in Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) rising to the highest level since mid-2015. Emerging market stocks have risen twice as much as developed...  Read More

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SystemTrader - Testing Filters for Signal Line and Centerline Crosses using the PPO (MACD)

by Arthur Hill

  .... Filtering out PPO Signals .... MACD versus the Percentage Price Oscillator  .... Testing Signal Line Crossovers .... Adding Some Filters to the PPO Signals .... Adding Focus to the Portfolio .... Conclusions - Caveat Emptor! ....     This System Trader article is a follow up to my ChartWatchers post on MACD. I will test the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) based on  Read More

Transports Mixed Technically As Market Rally Stalls

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, March 22, 2017 A strong technology sector (XLK, +0.63%) helped to lift the NASDAQ to moderate gains while the other major U.S. indices waffled near the flat line on Wednesday, a day after equities experienced their sharpest selling of 2017.  From a bullish perspective, it was calming to see stocks maintain their resiliency.  It would have...  Read More

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Short-Term Trend Model Neutral Signals Abound - New PMO BUY Signal on Gold

by Erin Heim

*** IMPORTANT NOTE: We are making some changes to DecisionPoint blogs and webinars starting on April 1st. Click here for more details.  ***   As projected yesterday, the Short-Term Trend Model executed three new Neutral signals on...  Read More

Darden Defies with a Triangle Breakout

by Arthur Hill

Stocks got hammered on Tuesday with the S&P 500 falling the most this year (1.24%) and breaking below its March low. Even with the seemingly big decline, the index is still just 2.25% from an all time high. Darden Restaurants caught my attention because it did not break below its early March low. Instead, the stock surged the last eight days and broke a triangle trend line. Overall, DRI is  Read More

BAC Tests Support

by Greg Schnell

Bank Of America has been a top performing stock for the last 9 months. It has continually worked its way higher. Tuesday's price action marked a significant reversal as the stock is now testing horizontal support for the last three months. The SCTR is a great buying signal, but it tends to be very late on selling stocks in a strong uptrend. I prefer the Relative Strength shown in  Read More

U.S. Stocks Tumble Most Since September

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, March 21, 2017 After months of steady gains, Tuesday's action was painful with eight of nine sectors lower - the utilities sector (XLU, +1.39%) was the lone exception.  Further, our major indices were led to the downside by the more aggressive Russell 2000, which dropped 2.71%.  The biggest losses were felt in banks ($DJUSBK) where the group...  Read More

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Is the Correction Finally Here or is this Just Noise?

by Arthur Hill

.... Breadth Indicators Plunge to Extremes  .... Finance, Industrials and Tech Get Hit Hard .... SPY has not Done This since October .... Small-cap Correlation Turns Down .... RSI Breaks Key Level for QQQ .... The Bottom Line .... What a difference a day makes - 24 little hours. There is selling pressure and then there is SELLING PRESSURE. Tuesday's decline represents the latter  Read More

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DecisionPoint's Evolution Continues!

by Chip Anderson

"Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end." - Closing Time, Semisonic Several years ago DecisionPoint.com merged with StockCharts.com bringing a huge collection of new tools, data and analysis techniques to our website.  Since then Carl Swenlin, Erin Heim and the data team here at StockCharts have worked tirelessly to provide you with their market analysis and...  Read More

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Pullback Moves Price Out of Rising Trend Channel - New ITTM Neutral Signal for the Dollar

by Erin Heim

No new signal changes to the DP Scoreboards, but I suspect we will begin to see the ST Trend Model signals change soon. Because the 20-EMAs are well above the 50-EMAs, the STTM signals should change to Neutral signals this week if price continues lower and closes beneath the 20-EMA. The Dollar generated an IT Trend Model Neutral signal. I'll write about that in the section on the Dollar near  Read More

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MAJOR STOCK INDEXES SUFFER BIGGEST DROP THIS YEAR -- SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LOOK EVEN WORSE

by John Murphy

STOCK ETFS SELLOFF... The market is suffering its worst day this year. Chart 1 show the PowerShares Nasdaq QQQ experiencing a downside reversal day after hitting a record high this morning. Its 14-day RSI has fallen out of overbought territory over 70 for the first time since December which shows loss of upside momentum. Daily MACD lines (below chart) are negative.  Read More

The Canadian Technician Recording 2017-03-21

by Greg Schnell

Here is the link to this week's recording. The Canadian Technician With Greg Schnell 2017-03-21 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.    Read More

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Strong Uptrends Continue in the Fab Five - Three Industrial Stocks to Watch

by Arthur Hill

.... The Fab Five Remain Strong (GOOGL, AAPL, FB, MSFT, AMZN) .... Equinix Looks Set to Continue Uptrend  .... Think Market, Sector, Group and Trend First (NVDA) .... A Payment Processor, A Big Data Player and an IoT Leader (PYPL, TDC, XLNX) .... Crown Castle, Zoetis and General Cable Turn Up (CCI, ZTS, BGC) .... Watch GE, Emerson and Caterpillar for clues on XLI ....  The Fab Five...  Read More

NASDAQ's Negative Divergence Holding The Market At Bay

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, March 20, 2017 Financials (XLF, -0.73%) led the market lower on Monday as short-term price and gap support was lost on one of the best performing sectors since the early November run.  While I don't view this as a big technical development in the long-term, it's worth noting that the door has been opened to further selling in the near-term...  Read More

Three breaks and you're out .....

by Julius de Kempenaer

This post looks at the rotation of US sectors again. The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the ETFs that track the performance of US sectors. Pretty much immediately the attention goes out to the Energy sector (XLE) and the Financials sector (XLF) as they stand out because of the length of their tails. Another combination worth keeping an eye on is the opposite rotation of Technology  Read More

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Soft Market - Indicators Bearish in All Time Frames

by Erin Heim

We've been watching the market soften over the past week and now the indicators are back in line for a decline.  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. To ensure that using this  Read More

Ford Breaks Bollinger Band after a Long Squeeze

by Arthur Hill

Ford (F) looked as if it was simply consolidating after a sharp surge and breakout, but this consolidation strung out and the stock broke to the downside on Monday. The chart shows Ford breaking above the September high with a surge in November-December. The stock fell back after this breakout and again surged with a big two-day advance. It looked like Ford was poised for further gains in early...  Read More

The Commodities Index ($CRB) Is Near 4 Month Lows - Panic Time?

by Greg Schnell

The foreign markets have been breaking out this week while the Commodity markets are trying to find direction. After making a new 3-month low, it is hard to be bullish. Even after the Commodity rally off the lows last year, we were unable to trigger a bull market signal on the weekly RSI chart. For a bull market to be starting we want it to rally up to the 70 level. Even then the RSI...  Read More

Tires Gaining Traction, Ready To Put Your Portfolio In Overdrive

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, March 17, 2017 It was another bifurcated day in the market on Friday as rotation continued.  The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both posted minor losses while the Russell 2000 led with a 0.40% gain.  Utilities (XLU, +0.60%) and industrials (XLI, +0.55%) were the sector winners while financials (XLF, -0.98%) and healthcare (XLV, -0.55%) were the...  Read More

My 100th Blog Article

by Greg Morris

This is funny. A few articles ago I commented on the foolishness of the media's focus on Dow 20,000 and now I'm focusing on my 100th blog article.  Is that being a hypocrite or what?  I have been racking my feeble brain trying to think of an appropriate topic for this milestone.  Maybe I'll start with a little history. When I got involved in money management in the 1990s with...  Read More

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Five Markets That Are Approaching Critical Junctures

by Martin Pring

US Dollar completes a head and shoulders top Dollar right at key up trendline against the rest of the world Gold caught in a tight trading range West Texas oil also restrained in a tight trading range Mexico---a chance to jump over the wall? Emerging markets to the rescue It seems that a lot of markets have reached inflexion points, the resolution of which could result in some important...  Read More

AAPL: Correction Due

by Carl Swenlin

Apple (AAPL) has rallied +60% from its May 2016 low, which was also the the low for the previous bear market for AAPL. The price advance for the last month-and-a-half has been pretty vigorous, but the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) has topped and crossed down through its signal line, so a correction seems likely. As usual, I like to look at a longer-term chart to enhance my perspective. In the...  Read More