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Latest Posts

DP Alert: New PMO BUY Signals on All Four Scoreboards Too Late? - LT Trend Model SELL on Dollar

by Erin Heim

As noted in the DP Scoreboard Summary below, all four major indexes triggered PMO BUY Signals today as the PMO crossed above its signal line. This certainly confirms the ST Trend Model BUY signals that appeared after yesterday's strong rally. You'll note in their charts below that all made new intraday all-time highs. These breakouts above overhead resistance are impressive and do suggest we...  Read More

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Five Charts That Say Today's S&P Breakout Is For Real

by Martin Pring

Lots of supporting breakouts Confidence ratio on the verge of a major bullish breakout? Financials: trick or treat? The US is due for a bounce against the rest of the world Is it time to play the China card? Lots of supporting breakouts Last week I pointed out that the 10-day ROC of the (inverted) $VIX had reversed from the kind of level that is more normally...  Read More

Juniper Networks Trending Higher, Threatens Breakout

by Tom Bowley

Recently, competitor Cisco Systems (CSCO) broke out to a 15 year high.  While Juniper Networks (JNPR) hasn't seen its price move to decade and a half highs, it is on the verge of breaking to a six year high amid very heavy volume.  JNPR traded more than 25 million shares on April 26th following its blowout quarterly earnings.  Both revenues and EPS handily topped forecasts and...  Read More

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AIRLINES ARE LEADING INDUSTRIAL SPDR TO NEW HIGHS -- AIRLINE LEADERS ARE UAL, SOUTHWEST, AND JETBLUE

by John Murphy

INDUSTRIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECORD... Chart 1 shows the Industrial Select SPDR (XLK) trading in record territory today. Today's higher price action is pushing the XLI above a sideways trading pattern that's been in effect since the start of March. Its relative strength line (above chart) is also starting to strengthen. Among the XLI leaders are commercial vehicles &...  Read More

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SystemTrader - Trailing Stops versus Profit Targets for a Moving Average Crossover System

by Arthur Hill

..... Do stops really help?  .... Setting the Benchmark .... System Ground Rules .... Consulting, Software and Data .... Testing Some Basic EMA Crossovers  .... Base System and Sample Charts .... Trailing Stops, Profit Targets and Both .... Backtest Results .... Testing a Percent Profit Target .... Conclusions and Caveat Emptor .... Scan Code ....   Do stops  Read More

S&P 500 Breaks To Another Fresh All-Time High

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, May 24, 2017 Seven of nine sectors finished higher to lead the S&P 500 to a record high close on Wednesday.  Materials (XLB, +0.67%) and utilities (XLU, +0.57%) led the advance as gold mining ($DJUSPM) and mining ($DJUSMG) both performed extremely well, rising 1.58% and 1.20%, respectively.  Steel ($DJUSST) was one of two industry  Read More

Canadian Utilities Close At New Highs - Higher Prices For Consumers Coming?

by Greg Schnell

Rolling through the various sector charts shows Canada all mixed up. Technology has been holding up but the anchor tenants of the Canadian market have not. A one month view shows the Material Energy and Financials spaces as mediocre, and the other areas driving the bus. While Healthcare is bouncing off huge multi year lows, it looks impressive, but not really. Shopify and a few other names have...  Read More

5/24 - MarketWatchers LIVE Show Recap - Home Builders - "What Would You Do?"

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Wednesday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but we will give you a quick recap. Be sure and check out the  Read More

Minding Three Gaps for Three Big Banks

by Arthur Hill

Banking stocks bounced on Tuesday as the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) fell and the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX) moved higher. These bounces reinforce the positive correlation with TLT and the negative correlation with $TNX. The chart below shows three big banks in long-term uptrends and six month stalls. Technically, Bank of America, JP MorganChase and Morgan Stanley are in long-term uptrends because they  Read More

Financials Lead As Banks Rally Amid Rising Treasury Yields

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, May 23, 2017 Eight of nine sectors finished in positive territory on Tuesday as only consumer discretionary (XLY, -0.38%) failed to do so.  18 of 23 industry groups within the discretionary sector finished lower, with retail and home construction stocks clearly the weakest links.  After gapping higher initially on a strong quarterly earnings...  Read More

Can't Keep a Good Market Down

by Tushar Chande

The rapid rebound from the sell-off last week was impressive.  On the other hand, utilities made new highs and high-yield bonds resumed their rally.  The internals of the Russell 1000 index are pointing to weakness, even as trend-following models remain mostly bullish.  I look at some of the mixed signals from this sideways market. Chart 1: The breakout in utilities has pushed  Read More

DP Alert: STTM BUY Signals for Dow and OEX - Oil Shoots Higher

by Erin Heim

The market recovery since Wednesday has been remarkable. With this steady rally, last week's bearish signals are being erased. I did mention in yesterday's blog that ST Trend Model signals will whipsaw quite a bit but they do help us to characterize the market in the very-short term. These new BUY signals could be considered bullish confirmations of the new rally higher.  The...Read More

Caterpillar (CAT) Wiggles To All Time Highs

by Greg Schnell

Caterpillar continues to track higher on the price charts but in May the chart has reached an interesting level. Caterpillar broke above a 6 year consolidation in late April and has been consolidating since then. The above chart shows Caterpillar breaking out and holding the gains so far. The picture  above shows Caterpillar has lots of smaller equipment that is required in...  Read More

Industrial Suppliers Continue Impressive Bounce Off Support

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, May 22, 2017 Utilities (XLU, +0.86%), technology (XLK, +0.80%) and industrials (XLI, +0.77%) were the sector leaders on Monday, aiding our major indices as they mostly have erased the big losses from last Wednesday.  The XLI has been a leader of late and is threatening an absolute price breakout and its highest relative close (vs. the S&P 500) since...  Read More

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Five Sectors Lead New High List - 10 Bullish Stock Setups

by Arthur Hill

.... XLF Lags as TLT Surges  .... A Classic Corrective Sequence for KRE .... TLT Holds Breakout and Nears 200-day  .... T-bond Correlations in Play .... Large-caps Continue to Lead New High List .... Utilities and Staples Lead Sector New High List .... Charts: MMC, CB, TRV, MDLZ, KHC, DPS, CMCSA, AAL, JBLU, MDT ....  XLF Lags as TLT Surges  The Finance SPDR (XLF) and the...  Read More

Gold's New BUY Signals - SPX Triggers ST Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Heim

I received some very important alerts this afternoon. Gold triggered a new IT Trend Model BUY signal as the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. In addition, Gold also saw a new PMO BUY signal; and, like the SPX, a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal was triggered as the 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA. STTM signals can whipsaw quite a bit, but they can clarify the significance of...  Read More

Utilities Take the Lead with a Triangle Breakout

by Arthur Hill

The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is clearly one of the leading sectors in 2017 because it is trading at its highest level of the year. XLU, by the way, is the only sector SPDR that hit a year-to-date high on Monday. The chart shows XLU correcting into November 2016, breaking out in December and then consolidating from mid-March to mid-May. This consolidation just ended with an upside breakout and the...  Read More

5/22 - MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Monday Set-ups - XLP/XLY Relative Ratio

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Monday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but in the MWL Blog will give you a quick recap. Be sure and check out  Read More

Will Technology (XLK) continue to lead the market higher?

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors shows four sectors with rotational patterns that catch the eye and deserve a further investigation. Inside the lagging quadrant, these are Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) and inside the leading quadrant, I am looking at Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). The balance of power on the RRG above is shifted to the leading quadrant. Five of...  Read More

A Reading List

by Greg Morris

In the 1970s there were very few books on technical analysis.  Now there a many great books available in the field of technical analysis and finance.  However, I'm going to keep these lists short and focused.  These lists contains many other wonderful books on technical analysis, finance, and behavioral analysis, but if I had to pick a library of only four books, this is it –...  Read More

Stocks Rebound On The Strength Of Industrials

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, May 19, 2017 Industrials (XLI, +1.32%) and energy (XLE, +1.23%) were the two clear leaders on Friday.  The XLI represents one of the four aggressive sectors in the market so it's always nice to see strength there.  Commercial vehicles ($DJUSHR) had a huge day, rising more than 3% and are featured below in the Sector/Industry Watch.  While...  Read More

Northrop Grumman Awaiting Bullish Triangle Breakout

by Tom Bowley

Northrop Grumman (NOC) has risen ten fold since this bull market began in 2009 and its current bullish pattern suggests that this defense company is not ready to roll over just yet.  It's been a struggle to clear 250 price resistance the past 6-7 months, but the rising lows are an indication that we should expect another breakout - with this ascending triangle measuring to perhaps 280...  Read More

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Dollar Index Triggers Some Long-term Sell Signals

by Martin Pring

Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers Dollar sympathy relationships confirm a weaker dollar Emerging currencies are emerging Some currencies remain in bear market against the dollar Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers This week, the US Dollar Index ($USD) violated several key benchmarks, leading to the...  Read More

The Swiss Franc Raises Its Flag

by Greg Schnell

The Swiss Franc ($XSF) made a meaningful break of the downtrend this week. The correlation of the Swissie to other asset classes is worth noting.  Reviewing some of the history on the chart, 2011 shows the Swiss Franc at the summit of a Matterhorn peak with  major momentum going in. But the sudden plummet soon after aligned closely with a meaningful top and plummet in Gold...  Read More

Foreign Markets Retest The Highs

by Greg Schnell

With the big swing this week, some of the foreign markets are retesting breakouts. Below are just a few markets to watch in the next few weeks. Australia ($AORD) failed to hold the breakout to new highs and has now lost the 10 WMA. While losing the 10 WMA is not that big of a deal, the size of the downward stroke right after trying to break through previous highs suggests not  Read More

DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap -- Break and Bounce

by Carl Swenlin

In our Conclusions section of the Weekly Wrap last week, I expressed my heightened level of caution due to the negative condition of our indicators. On Monday a nice rally to new, all-time highs gave me cause to doubt my assessment, but the rally stalled on Tuesday, and the bottom fell out on Wednesday. But never mind, the market bounced off Thursday's low, and about half of the loss was...  Read More

Rising European Currencies Are Pushing the Dollar Lower

by John Murphy

While stocks were rebounding last week, the dollar wasn't. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index ETF (UUP) falling again Friday to the lowest level since November. It may seem surprising to see the dollar continuing to drop with bond yields bouncing along with stocks. The dollar drop, however, may have more to do with improving European currencies. Chart 2 shows the...  Read More

The New Nifty Fifty

by Bruce Fraser

The 'Nifty-Fifty' era for stocks started in the 1960s and went into the early 1970s. These fifty or so stocks were consistent out-performers. Their earnings, sales and stock price growth stood apart from most other stocks. These stocks grew in value, year after year. They became known as 'One Decision' stocks. These companies could be bought and held forever. Buy them and forget them. The  Read More

Broad REIT ETFs Hit Interesting Junctures, but Hotel and Retail REITs Weigh

by Arthur Hill

The REIT iShares (IYR) and the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) are at interesting junctures because they corrected within an uptrend. Even though both are at potential reversal zones, chartists should be careful because retail REITs and hotel REITs are weak spots within the REIT universe. The chart below shows IYR with an uptrend since November and a recent pullback to the rising 200-day EMA in May.  Read More

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Video - Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Correction Evidence Builds

by Arthur Hill

The stock market has been in correction mode since early March when looking at the EW S&P 500 ETF (RSP) and S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY). Together, these two ETFs represent 900 stocks and cover the majority of the market, and they have been flat since March 1st. Throw in a flat correction for the S&P Small-Cap 600 since December and this covers 1500 stocks. This correction, however, has  Read More

Bearish Signals Continue to Mount

by Erin Heim

It was a rough finish to the week and it has shaken up the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Additionally, the Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) generated a Neutral signal on the equal-weight Financials ETF (RYF) and a weekly Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal popped on the equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD). Believe it or not, these Scoreboards were completely  Read More

5/19 - MarketWatchers LIVE Recap with Greg Schnell

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Friday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live "technical" market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but we will give you a quick recap. Be sure and check out the  Read More

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RISING EUROPEAN CURRENCIES ARE PUSHING THE DOLLAR LOWER -- THE FALLING DOLLAR, HOWEVER, IS BOOSTING COMMODITIES

by John Murphy

RISING EUROPEAN CURRENCIES ARE PUSHING THE DOLLAR LOWER... While stocks are rebounding today, the dollar isn't. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index ETF (UUP) falling again today to the lowest level since November. It may seem surprising to see the dollar continuing to drop with bond yields bouncing today along with stocks. The dollar drop, however, may have more...  Read More

When in Doubt, Sit it Out

by John Hopkins

Anyone who trades the market on a regular basis knows how important it is to use whatever tools are available to make important decisions. This includes using charts to determine the strength/weakness of a specific stock, sector or index, zeroing in on key price and technical support/resistance levels and getting a handle on the overall mood of the market. For me one of the key indicators I use...  Read More

Are We Topping? Watch These Two Industry Groups

by Tom Bowley

We saw the first significant selling pressure in months last week, especially on Wednesday.  Financials (XLF) led the rout to the downside, but the sector did bounce back later in the week and, in the process, held key neckline price support within two key industry groups - banks ($DJUSBK) and life insurance companies ($DJUSIL).  Both of these groups do well in a rising interest...  Read More

My 3-Prong Recipe for the Safe Growth & Outperformance of Your Portfolio

by Gatis Roze

There is a seismic generational displacement happening in the investment landscape. Many investors are shifting their assets into indexes and ETFs as they move away from stocks and mutual funds. Due to this shift, a number of investment firms are having to make enormous changes themselves in order to remain relevant and profitable. I maintain that these investors' misplaced beliefs that...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - A Stealthy Correction

by Arthur Hill

.... The Stealthy Looking Correction  .... AD Volume Lines Reflect Corrective Period  .... High-Low Lines Have Yet to Turn Down .... Percent Above 200-day EMA Deteriorates Further .... SPY Gaps Down like its September 2016 .... Setting a Correction Zone for QQQ .... IJR: Breakout Failed, but Short-term Oversold  .... Finance and Industrials Gap Lower .... Low Correlations are...  Read More

Stocks Rebound, This Relative Ratio Will Be Important To Watch

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, May 18, 2017 Technology (XLK, +0.59%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, +0.58%) led the market's rally on Thursday after mobile telecom ($DJUSWC) managed to hang onto 20 week EMA support after a drubbing on Wednesday.  The bad news is that there remains an ugly negative divergence on its weekly chart that still needs to be resolved.  Check it...  Read More

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Two Important Areas To Watch- $VIX and Financials

by Martin Pring

10-day ROC for the VIX may have a message for traders Close that gap on your way out Financials, a canary in the coal line for stocks in general Last week I wrote about the $VIX and concluded that a low reading, such as we recently saw, usually precedes a market top by many months. Extremely low readings therefore, are not much help as timing devices. On the other hand, I also...  Read More

Caterpillar Tests Price Support, Nearly Fills Gap

by Tom Bowley

Caterpillar (CAT) was one of many beneficiaries of the latest quarterly earnings season.  With its revenues and EPS topping Wall Street estimates, CAT surged higher on April 25 from its April 24 close of 96.81.  The recent market weakness enabled CAT to pull back to test key price support and nearly test that gap support as well, setting up the stock as a very solid reward to risk  Read More